Republican States Are Gayer Than You Think

States that voted for Donald Trump in the 2020 election have only marginally fewer LGBT people living in them than those that voted for his Democratic rival now-President Joe Biden, new population figures suggest.

The percentage of the population in red states who are LGBT was around 4.06 percent, while it was 4.36 percent in blue states—a difference of just 0.3 percentage points—according to analysis conducted by Newsweek on a November study by the UCLA School of Law Williams Institute analyzing the adult population.

Overall, it found that the U.S. had an LGBT population of 5.6 percent. That population varied widely between individual states; West Virginia and Mississippi had the joint lowest, 4.1 percent, while Washington, D.C. and Kentucky had the highest proportions—14.3 percent and 10.5 percent respectively.

When the total LGBT population among Trump and Biden-voting states was compared with 2022's census overall population estimates, the difference in the number of LGBT people was negligible. The Williams Institute used figures from 2020-2021, which may mean the respective proportions compared to 2022's population size may be slightly smaller than actuality.

The split between red and blue states may come as a surprise, given surveys suggest that the LGBTQ+ community overwhelmingly voted Democrat in 2020.

In 2019, the Williams Institute found half of registered LGBT voters were Democrats, 15 percent were Republicans and 22 percent independents. Immediately following the election, LGBTQ+ advocacy organization GLAAD found 81 percent of the so-called "pink vote" had selected Biden to 14 percent who chose Trump, based on a survey of 800 adults conducted between November 9-14, 2020.

However, the split between states is based on the Electoral College, which works on a winner-takes-all system, while there may have been many LGBTQ+ voters who supported the Democratic ticket in states that ultimately turned red.

For instance, in Florida, a key swing state which gave its 29 Electoral College votes to Trump, the Democratic ticket accrued nearly 5.3 million votes to almost 5.7 million for the Republican one, a margin of 3.36 percent. The state's LGBT population is assessed to be 5.4 percent of its total, or 898,000 people.

In some states, the pink vote may very well have swung the election. In Nevada, Biden won by just 33,596, or a margin of 2.39 percent. Meanwhile, the state's LGBT population is 6.6 percent, or 150,100.

With LGBTQ+ rights becoming a major dividing line in the culture wars, as both Biden and Trump take another shot at the White House in 2024, the community's vote and its sentiments towards the candidates may be key to winning important states.

While Trump has voiced objections toward gender-affirming health care for transgender people and, if re-elected, vowed to stop federal agencies from promoting "the concept of sex and gender transition at any age," Biden has made overtures to the pink vote in an apparent bid to shore up support among his base.

During this year's Pride Month, his administration announced a series of protections for LGBTQ+ individuals against attacks, including a federal funding for programs "that help parents affirm their LGBTQ+ kids" and a new Department of Education coordinator to address the "growing threat" of book bans.

Correction 12/11/23, 3:20 a.m. ET: This article was updated to clarify that the difference between the percentage of the population who are LGBT in red and blue states was 0.3 percentage points. An earlier version stated it was 0.3 percent.