Republicans' Chances of Flipping Key Senate Seats With 3 Weeks to Election

With about three weeks left until this year's election, key U.S. Senate races remain close as Republicans try to flip the upper chamber.

Democrats currently hold a slim majority in the Senate with 48 seats and three independents who caucus with them. Meanwhile, there are 49 Republicans in the upper chamber at this time.

Election forecaster 270toWin, whose interactive map is based on political analyst Larry Sabato's election predictions, currently has the GOP with the majority at 51 seats to the Democrats' 48, which includes two independents, after the November 5 election. Another election forecast from RacetotheWH by political analyst Logan Phillips has an interactive map with a 51-48 Republican majority win.

Both 270toWin and RacetotheWH's election maps include strong red and blue states and states that lean Republican and Democrat. So how are the candidates doing in the tight races?

Montana

In Montana, U.S. Senator Jon Tester, a Democrat, is defending his seat against Republican Tim Sheehy. 270toWin's interactive map has Montana currently leaning Republican. RacetotheWH has Montana with a Republican tilt with Sheehy having a 68.5 percent chance of winning compared to Tester's 31 percent chance.

Poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight has Sheehy 5.4 points ahead of Tester, with a polling average of 49.6 percent compared to Tester's 44.2 percent.

Ohio

It's a toss-up in Ohio between Democratic U.S. Senator Sherrod Brown and his Republican opponent Bernie Moreno, according to 270toWin and RacetotheWH's interactive maps. RacetotheWH has Brown with a 65 percent chance of winning compared to Moreno's 35.3 percent chance.

Brown is leading Moreno by 2.3 points (47.9 to 45. 6 percent), according to FiveThirtyEight.

Arizona

In Arizona's Senate race between U.S. Representative Ruben Gallego, a Democrat, and Republican Kari Lake, 270toWin predicts that the state will lean Democratic and RacetotheWH thinks it will likely be Democratic, giving Gallego a 92 percent chance of winning and Lake a 7.6 percent chance.

FiveThirtyEight has Gallego 7.6 points ahead of Lake (49.9 to 42.3 percent).

Michigan

Democrat U.S. Representative Elissa Slotkin and former Republican Representative Mike Rogers will face off in Michigan's Senate election this fall. 270toWin and RacetotheWH have Michigan leaning Democratic. RacetotheWH gives Slotkin an 80 percent chance of winning compared to Rogers' 20.3 percent chance.

Slotkin is leading Rogers by 4 points with 48.2 percent support compared to the Republican's 44.2 percent, according to FiveThirtyEight.

Pennsylvania

It's also a Democratic lean in Pennslyvania's race between U.S. Senator Bob Casey, a Democrat, and Republican Dave McCormick, according to 270toWin and RacetotheWH. RacetotheWH has Casey with an 84 percent chance of winning and McCormick with a 16.3 percent chance.

FiveThirtyEight has Casey beating McCormick by 4.7 points (48.5 to 43.8 percent).

Newsweek has reached out to the Democratic and Republican National Committees via email for comment Sunday afternoon.

Where Are Republicans Gaining Seats?

While it might look like more states with close races are leaning Democrat rather than Republican, this does not mean the Democrats will keep control of the Senate. The states that are leaning Democratic already have Democrat or independent senators, so if the Democratic candidates win, it won't add any seats to their majority.

Democrats, meanwhile, are projected to lose West Virginia because the current senator, Joe Manchin, a Democrat-turned-independent, is not seeking reelection in the red state.

270toWin and RacetotheWH have West Virginia as a safe Republican state.

Polling in West Virginia is scarce, but according to a Kaplan Strategies poll conducted in early June, Governor Jim Justice had 60 percent of voter support compared to his Democratic opponent Glenn Elliot's 27 percent. The poll surveyed 464 West Virginia voters and has a margin of error of 4.6 percent.

Meanwhile, RacetotheWH gives Justice a 99.7 percent chance of winning compared to Elliott's 0 percent chance.

If Republicans take West Virginia and Montana and keep the seats they already have, that will give them 51 seats.

What's Going on in Nebraska?

While 270toWin has Nebraska leaning Republican, for the most part, some recent polls have the independent, Dan Osborn, ahead of the Republican, U.S. Senator Deb Fischer, given most of them are Osborn's campaign polls.

An Independent Center poll, which was not commissioned by either campaign, found Osborn ahead of Fischer by 5 points (47 to 42 percent). The poll was conducted from September 27 to October 1 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 points.

Meanwhile, Fischer is 1.4 points ahead of Osborn with 43.5 percent of the vote compared to Osborn's 42.1 percent in FiveThirtyEight's polling averages.

RacetotheWH has the state leaning for the GOP candidate, giving Fischer a 76.6 percent chance of winning and Osborn a 23 percent chance.

Can Democrats Flip Any GOP Seats?

Democrats are trying to make a play in the Republican strongholds of Texas and Florida by pouring money into the Senate races there.

At a National Press Club appearance on September 26, Senator Gary Peters, chair of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC), said his party was making a "multimillion-dollar investment" in TV advertising in a bid to win Senate races in those states.

U.S. Representative Colin Allred is attempting to unseat U.S. Senator Ted Cruz and Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is vying for U.S. Senator Rick Scott's seat.

But 270toWin has Texas and Florida likely voting for the Republican candidate. RacetotheWH has Texas tilting toward the GOP candidate, giving Cruz a 72.3 percent chance of winning and Allred a 28 percent chance, and has Florida leaning Republican, with Scott having a 76.9 percent chance of winning compared to Mucarsel-Powell a 23 percent chance.

According to FiveThirtyEight polling averages, Cruz is leading Allred by 3.7 points (48.2 to 44.5 percent). Meanwhile, Scott is ahead of Murcarsel-Powell by 4.5 points (47.5 to 43 percent).