Republicans Chances of Taking Over the House With 2 Weeks to Midterms

It's two weeks until Election Day. And Republicans—once feared to be facing the possibility of missed opportunity this midterm election cycle—appear to be exactly where they need to be to reclaim their majority in the House.

Needing to flip just five seats, the GOP is favored to win nine Democratic seats compared to a pair of flip opportunities for Democrats. Nearly three dozen other seats, meanwhile, are considered "toss-ups," with Democrats on the vulnerable end of all but 10 of them.

And momentum is in Republicans' favor. After Democrats rode a wave of malcontent over issues like abortion to a lead in the generic ballot in August, Republicans regained a narrow lead in the national generic ballot over the weekend, per FiveThirtyEight, and now lead Democrats by a half-point.

With 14 days until election day, here's how Republicans could take back the House.

New Districts

In nearly every election in recent U.S. history, the party opposite the president has an inherent advantage to retake the majority. This year, however, Republicans have a distinct advantage that already seemingly tilted the congressional maps in their favor before a single poll was conducted: new congressional district lines, redrawn largely by Republican state legislatures.

According to an August analysis by the Brennan Center for Justice, 178 of the 218 seats needed to secure a House majority are in districts—primarily in the South and Midwest—whose residents largely favored President Donald Trump in the last election.

Though Democrats are favored in 197 redrawn districts, there are 60 districts across the country considered to be "competitive," with half leaning Trump and half leaning for Democratic President Joe Biden. Even then, Democrats' advantage is narrow. Of the 30 narrowly Biden districts, his median margin of victory was just 4.7 points, the Brennan analysis concluded, leaving Democratic candidates more vulnerable than not.

"With even relatively modest coalitional shifts, many of these seats could easily slip out of Democrats' reach—and not just in Republican wave years," the analysis said.

Vulnerable Incumbents

The shifting national political environment this cycle has also left some incumbent Democratic members of Congress vulnerable.

In Arizona, Democrat Tom O'Halleran is in a fight for his political life against newcomer Eli Crane, prompting intervention from the national Democratic Party in the closing weeks of the campaign. In Iowa, Democrat Cindy Axne—who won her last two elections by a low-single-digit margin—is considered an underdog in her campaign against state Senator Zach Nunn in a more rural, more Republican-leaning redrawing of the central Iowa district.

And in New Jersey, Democrat Tom Malinowski—who barely won his seat in 2018—is in a statistical tie with Republican Thomas Kean Jr. in most polls, and is considered among the handful of incumbent Democrats likely to lose.

Toss-ups

Who will control Congress will more than likely come down to each party's success in the toss-up races, or the districts that are likely to go either way.

From a sheer numbers perspective, Democrats should be able to retain their majority by defending the seats they already have, and by flipping the two seats organizations like the Cook Political Report say are in their favor.

However, the issues shaping either party's route to victory are constantly changing, leaving Democrats at a clear disadvantage in competitive races. Voter performance and registration data show Republicans have a much better chance of flipping Democratic-leaning competitive districts than Democrats do Republican-leaning districts.

And the issues are now on Republicans' side, with topics like the economy and crime—rather than wedge issues like abortion—largely shaping voters' views.