Republicans Face Disaster in Ohio

Ohioans will go to the polls on Tuesday to vote in a special election on the fate of a ballot measure aiming to make it more difficult to enact abortion protections in the state constitution.

The election will be a test of voter attitudes around abortion in the historically contentious battleground state after the 2022 U.S. Supreme Court decision in Dodd v. Jackson Women's Health Organization last summer repealed Roe v. Wade.

If early polling proves accurate, Republicans—who pushed for the vote—could be headed for a significant defeat.

Though abortion isn't explicitly on the ballot, Ohioans have already been headed to the polls in droves. According to data compiled by the Associated Press last week, more than 533,000 people had voted by mail or in person since early voting began July 11—doubling the early voting figures for Ohio's two previous midterm primary elections. And most of those ballots were cast by Democrats.

Dubbed by supporters as a measure to "protect Ohio's constitution," State Issue 1 has an explicit aim: to repeal current language allowing constitutional amendments to be ratified with a simple majority of voters, and replace it with a higher, 60 percent threshold.

On paper, it's a common thing to do. While Ohio is one of 21 states with a simple popular vote requirement for constitutional amendments, most of the country operates under different rules, with some requiring a two-thirds majority.

In Ohio's case, however, it's the context that matters. Democrats have called Republicans hypocrites for deciding to hold a special election in August to try to eliminate abortion protections about six months after the Republican-led Legislature voted to eliminate August elections because of their high cost and historically low turnout.

In July, a citizen-led effort to enshrine a legal right to abortion up to the point of fetal viability in the state constitution cleared the 414,000 signature threshold to qualify for the November ballot in an election year in which numerous local officials and school board seats are up for grabs. And on abortion, recent history has shown Republicans have consistently lost the fight.

In addition to a failed effort to impose tougher restrictions on abortion in traditionally conservative Kansas, several other measures in red states like Kentucky and Montana have also failed, while voters in Michigan—another battleground state—recently voted to enact a constitutional right to reproductive freedom, making it one of three states to do so since federal protections for abortion were repealed.

Recent polling shows Ohio is trending in a similar direction.

Of the four polls conducted this summer of Ohio voters' attitudes toward the protections for abortion access in the November ballot measure, well over 50 percent of voters supported enshrining abortion protections in the state constitution. And while one poll by USA Today/Suffolk University showed 32 percent of the state's voters opposing the protection, a June 22 poll of 500 likely voters conducted by Scripps News/YouGov found fewer than one-quarter of Ohio voters were opposed to 58 percent in favor.

Tuesday's election, however, is not about abortion—it's about constitutional amendments. And traditionally, measures making it more difficult to enact constitutional amendments have failed more than they've passed.

Since 2017, at least 16 states have proposed changing rules dictating thresholds for popular vote initiatives to be successful, according to an analysis by FiveThirtyEight, though few were ultimately enacted. Of those that were successful, several states, including Idaho and Michigan, later saw their changes tossed out in court.

Both sides, meanwhile, have been circling the wagons.

Public awareness campaigns by both sides totaling tens of millions of dollars have sought to spur turnout for Tuesday's vote. Among conservatives, Republican presidential candidate and former Vice President Mike Pence—who has made a federal 15-week ban on abortion a centerpiece of his longshot campaign—has publicly campaigned against the November ballot measure, while figures like singer John Legend have traveled to the state to raise awareness against State Issue 1, drawing scorn from the state's Republican establishment.

The Ohio Democratic Party tailored its messaging to reach beyond the abortion issue. Recent communiques by the party have highlighted recently enacted changes to state law that could have been thwarted by Republicans' newly proposed thresholds, including a public smoking ban, bond votes for economic development, and Ohio's recently enacted minimum wage increase to $10.10 an hour.

Newsweek reached out to the Ohio Republican Party via email for comment.