Republicans Risk Losing Key Voters With Shutdown

A possible government shutdown may not just have an economic impact on the United States but also an electoral one, pollsters say.

The U.S. is less than a week away from a likely government shutdown, and if Democrats and Republicans can't reach a deal, thousands of government employees could be furloughed, the American travel economy could lose nearly $1 billion a week, and key economic reports would be suspended, leaving the Federal Reserve blindfolded as it makes critical policy decisions.

But it could also deal a blowback on the Republican Party in upcoming elections.

While the majority of Americans would blame both parties for a shutdown, 20 percent would lay the blame solely on Republicans, according to a Morning Consult poll released on Tuesday.

Looking at independent voters in particular, 21 percent of those surveyed say they would blame the GOP, compared to only 4 percent who would blame Democrats. It was also the lowest share of voters who point the finger at Democrats for an October 1 shutdown. Comparably, 19 percent of Democrats said disagreement within their own party was to blame and 7 percent of Republicans blamed Democrats.

Morning Consult politics analyst Eli Yokley told Newsweek that while the poll also suggests that most Americans are not paying close attention to the government funding debate that has dominated circles in Washington, D.C., the shutdown could become a major headache for the Republican Party if it were to persist well into October or even later on.

"A prolonged shutdown could dampen the reputation of the party that gets the blame, and the GOP has much to lose given the fact that an increasing number of voters have seen it as competent to govern since President Joe Biden took office," Yokley said.

Kevin Wagner, a political professor at the Florida Atlantic University, agreed, saying that if the American public is to respond as it typically does, a shutdown could be bad news for the party in control of the House.

"Historically, Congress has gotten a disproportionate amount of the blame for government shutdowns," Wagner told Newsweek. "Possible that it could be different this time, but it is a fair prediction that voters, especially moderate ones, will blame Congress again."

For example, when then-President Donald Trump shut the government down over his border wall in 2019, 47 percent of voters blamed him three weeks after the partial shutdown. Two weeks later, that grew to 54 percent of voters.

The poll, conducted September 21 to 24, found that less than a quarter of Americans have seen, read, or heard "a lot" about the potential government shutdown. While that share has grown to 22 percent of all voters since the beginning of the month, when 11 percent said the same, Yokley warned that people will care much more come October 1.

"Republicans have been able to rely on voters' limited awareness of their own budgetary infighting to keep some of the public's blame on the other side of the aisle," he said. "However, the GOP is unlikely to be able to rely on a lack of voter attention to obscure its internal divisions if infighting in the House conference closes the government's doors."

"If the government does shut down for any notable period of time, our data suggests it could threaten the modest gains Republicans have made since Biden took office when it comes to voters' perceptions of its ability to govern," Yokley added.