Republicans Risk Losing Safely Red Senate Seat, And Are Blaming Mitt Romney

Since Utah become a state, its voters have elected a non-Republican candidate to the U.S. Senate just five times in its one-and-a-quarter centuries of existence.

But voters appear poised to unseat Republican Senator Mike Lee in favor of an independent candidate at a time the nation's two major parties are grappling for control of Congress. And the blame, Republicans say, lies at the feet of the party's former presidential nominee, Mitt Romney.

As Evan McMullin, an independent and noted critic of former President Donald Trump, has surged in the polls, Romney—a close friend of both candidates, he said—has been visibly absent from the campaign, raising questions from prominent Republicans why he appears to be sabotaging the party's chances to regain control of the chamber this cycle.

"Please get on board. Help me win re-election. Help us do that," Lee, who is seeking his third term, said on Fox News host Tucker Carlson's show Wednesday night.

Other Republicans, meanwhile, have begun circling the wagons.

On Wednesday, Trump endorsed Lee's re-election while criticizing Romney's apparent reluctance to support Lee, saying neither he nor Evan "McMuffin," as Trump called him, represent Utah values.

Newt Gingrich—the former Republican House speaker who has played a key role in orchestrating Republicans' midterm strategy this cycle—decried Romney's lack of involvement as handing a victory to the Democrats, arguing that independents, even former Republicans like McMullin, who has been endorsed by the Utah Democratic Party, tend to caucus and vote with the liberal party.

"Why Romney would vote, or fail to pursue, helping his colleague keep a Republican majority—which is what we're drifting toward now, toward a majority—in Utah...it would be one of those great surprises if we lost," Gingrich said in an interview on Fox News Wednesday night.

Recent polling suggests the damage to Lee's campaign, however, might have been self-inflicted.

Survey results released Wednesday by Hill Research Consultants showed that McMullin has surged 13 points in the polls since the start of the summer, driven largely by "a sharp rise in negative opinions of Mike Lee." But it also coincides with Trump's unfavorable rating in the state, driven by a more moderate brand of conservatism defined by the state's Mormon population.

According a poll memo obtained by Newsweek, McMullin's strongest support comes from the urbanized area around Salt Lake City as well as a coalition of younger women, college graduates and more affluent voters—all groups that national polls indicate are expected to vote in higher percentages this cycle.

When adjusted for likely voters, McMullin's lead is closer to 10 points, rather than the dead heat the poll originally indicated. Meanwhile, Trump's favorability rating in the state is "upside down," the pollsters suggested, with 41 percent favorable against 57 unfavorable.

McMullin has used Lee's close affiliation with the former president—and religion—against him. While an estimated two-thirds of Mormons voted for Trump in the 2020 election (a significant reversal from his performance with the religious group in 2016) President Joe Biden actually eked out a victory among younger members of the Church of Latter Day Saints.

On Thursday, the McMullin campaign released an ad drawing heavily from a Lee/Trump campaign event in which the senator compared Trump to Captain Moroni—a hero in the Book of Mormon.

"It's wrong to use scripture in the pursuit of personal power," the ad said, stating that Lee had "lost his way."