Republicans See Big Gains Over Inflation, Crime Just Ahead of Midterm: Poll

Republicans are gaining support from voters on key issues of inflation and crime with less than two weeks until the midterm elections, according to a new poll.

The economy, crime and abortion are three issues that have defined the 2022 midterm elections. Republicans have sought to tie Democrats to economic pains such as high inflation and gas prices, as well as rising crime across the country. Meanwhile, Democrats—largely on the defense in key races—have knocked Republicans for opposing reproductive rights, a topic that grew in prominence after the Supreme Court's overturning of Roe v. Wade in June.

Republicans are generally expected to at least flip control of the House of Representatives—with Democrats being seen as having a narrow advantage to retain Senate control. Typically, the president's party sees losses during their first midterm.

A new ABC News/IPSOS poll suggests Republican messaging on the economy and crime may be paying off as Election Day approaches. The poll surveyed 618 registered voters from October 21 to 22 and has a margin of error of 4.2 percentage points.

Republicans Lead on Economic Issues

The economy remains one of the most important issues for many voters. Inflation and high gas prices that were felt over the summer have defined Republican messaging.

Overall, 38 percent of registered voters said they trust Republicans more on the economy, while 24 percent said they trust Democrats more. When asked about inflation specifically, 38 percent of registered voters trusted the GOP to curb inflation, while 21 percent said they trust Democrats more on the issue.

Republicans have blamed economic woes on Democratic spending, especially on COVID-19 relief packages critics have said caused high rates of inflation. They have promised to reign in and cut unnecessary spending if they win control of Congress in a message they hope will resonate with swing voters.

Democrats have resisted GOP messaging, pointing to external factors such as the Russia-Ukraine war as driving up gas prices. President Joe Biden also passed legislation known as the Inflation Reduction Act aimed at reducing the deficit and has tapped more than 200 million barrels of oil from the strategic reserves to alleviate pain at the pump.

Crime Boosting Republicans in Key Races

Crime is another issue Republicans are focusing on that has resonated with voters, giving them an advantage in key states. Focusing on crime has even allowed the GOP to creep into more solidly Democratic territory, including New York's gubernatorial race where incumbent Kathy Hochul is finding herself in a closer-than-expected race against Republican challenger Representative Lee Zeldin.

Republicans have blamed rising crime on progressive criminal justice reform policies—including cash bail reform, which they say leads to dangerous criminals being released from jail. Democrats blame rising crime on economic insecurity caused by the pandemic, Ukraine war and other social tensions.

According to the poll, 37 percent of voters trust Republicans to do a good job of preventing crime from increasing if they retake majorities in Congress. Just 22 percent of voters trust Democrats more. Ten percent have faith in both parties to manage crime, while 30 percent of voters do not believe either party is well equipped to deal with rising crime.

Democrats Hold Advantage on Abortion, Russia

While Republicans are winning big on crime and the economy, Democrats are banking on abortion to mitigate losses. They have cast Republicans, some of whom support a national ban on abortion, as being out of the mainstream on the issue. Republicans in tight races are saying states should be allowed to regulate the medical procedure, bucking calls for any federal abortion policy.

Democrats have built up significant support on abortion. Forty-eight percent of registered voters trust them more on abortion, according to the poll. Only 25 percent of respondents said they trust Republicans on the issue. Four percent said they trust both parties, and 22 percent said they trust neither.

Voters also narrowly support Democrats on the Russia-Ukraine war. Biden has so far expressed strong support for Kyiv, providing humanitarian and military aid experts say have turned the tide of the war in favor of Ukraine. Thirty-one percent of registered voters trust Democrats more on Ukraine, while 25 percent said they trusted the GOP more.

Newsweek reached out to the Democratic National Committee (DNC) for comment.