Republicans Trapped in a Hell of Their Own Making

The Republican House majority is teetering on a precipice after former Speaker Kevin McCarthy announced that he is leaving Congress.

McCarthy, who was ousted from the speakership by a group of hard-right Republicans following an unprecedented motion to vacate in October, revealed on Wednesday that he was "leaving the House at the end of the year."

Following the expulsion of controversial Republican George Santos from the House this week, McCarthy's departure will leave the GOP with just 220 members in the chamber, only two more than the 218 required for a majority.

Disagreements among Republicans have already significantly impacted the governing ability of House Speaker Mike Johnson, McCarthy's replacement. The shrinking GOP majority will likely exacerbate the problem.

McCarthy's exit prompted analysts and observers on X, formerly Twitter, to ponder the future of House GOP leadership, with some even speculating that Democrats could be poised to temporarily snatch power before the 2024 elections.

"With the Santos seat vacancy, and now McCarthy, the House majority will be down to 2," wrote political scientist Norman Ornstein, an emeritus scholar at the American Enterprise Institute. "Democrats need to be prepared to act swiftly and decisively if the numbers drop below 218-- even if only for a day."

"Quick motion to vacate, [Minority Leader Hakeem] Jeffries as Speaker, immediate agenda," he continued. "Reconciliation bill to secure robust spending, eliminate debt limit permanently, taxes on rich to pay for permanent child tax credit."

"McCarthy's pending departure adds to the already rough math problem facing House Rs/Speaker Johnson," posted Politico congressional reporter Olivia Beavers.

"Wow. In one week, Republicans lost TWO members in competitive districts—bringing their House majority to just two votes," Democratic strategist Sawyer Hackett posted. "The Mike Johnson effect!"

"We previewed the McCarthy resignation news last night and the implications of a house GOP majority that is trickling down to nil," posted Tim Miller, a writer for The Bullwark and former Republican consultant. "Guys couldn't do anything when they had 5 seats they have no hope now."

While special elections will take place to fill the seats of Santos in New York and McCarthy in California, the Republican majority could briefly fall to only one seat, since Representative Bill Johnson of Ohio is also poised to exit the House. Johnson is leaving at an unannounced date to take on a new role as president of Youngstown State University.

GOP Representative Patrick McHenry, a McCarthy ally who served a short stint as speaker pro tempore prior to the election of Johnson, also announced this week that he will be not be seeking reelection next year.

Representative Matt Gaetz, who filed the motion to oust McCarthy in October and mocked his departure by posting "McLeavin'" to X on Wednesday, expressed concerns earlier this week that Republicans may lose their majority before the next election.

"Let's do the math here," Gaetz said on The Charlie Kirk Show. "Now we've kicked out George Santos, we have a three-vote majority. Congressman Bill Johnson of Ohio has taken a college university presidency. That could knock us down to two. And I don't really think Kevin McCarthy's sticking around long."

"So, we could be down to a one-seat majority," he continued. "We've got a bunch of these octogenarians in our conference. If, God forbid, any of them should cross the rainbow bridge, we would be in a situation where we could literally lose the majority."