Ukraine Suggests Counteroffensive May Be Imminent

The arrival of Western weapons to Kyiv points to an imminent Ukrainian counteroffensive, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), which referenced comments by the country's defense minister, Oleksii Reznikov, about such a move.

In an interview in English with Estonian television, Reznikov suggested that Kyiv's forces might use the Leopard 2 tanks it recently acquired from Germany for a spring counterattack which he said was being planned in "different directions."

"You will see [the tanks] during our counteroffensive campaign," he told the ERR channel on Sunday. "It all depends on the best time. Also it depends on the weather conditions. During the springtime we have wet ground," which he said favored "vehicles without wheels," i.e. tanks. He said that they could be used "April and in May," suggesting that a counterattack was imminent.

As of Monday, Ukraine had received the Leopard 2s as well as the British-made Challenger 2 tanks. On March 21, U.S. officials announced the acceleration of the deployment of Abrams tanks and Patriot missile systems.

On March 20, the European Union decided to give Ukraine one million shells over the next year, a move which Reznikov described as "crucial" for Kyiv's forces because of the need to "deter" Russian forces, "especially in the defending line in the east of our country."

"After that we are going to go with a counteroffensive campaign. It means that we need more ammunition to break through their defending line," he said. "This war is a war of resources."

The ISW, a think tank based in the U.S, said on Wednesday that the arrival of the equipment in Ukraine "likely sets conditions for a Ukrainian counteroffensive," though there was likely to be a gap between the arrival of the new equipment with Ukraine's ability to use it in a counteroffensive.

When asked about the ongoing fight for the eastern town of Bakhmut, Reznikov said that Russian forces were continuing to attack "without real results."

"We reduced the offensive capacities" of the Russians, which will "help our armed forces" keep the front line stable and so should "give us time to prepare for a counteroffensive campaign," Reznikov added.

Speculation has been building over the last few weeks over when Ukraine might stage a counteroffensive, amid high losses from both sides in Bakhmut. David Silbey, an associate professor of history at Cornell University, in Washington D.C, said that talk of a Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Donetsk city may be part of broader strategy, even if the town itself was not valuable for either side.

"The oddity here is that militaries do not normally telegraph their attacks, so announcing a Ukrainian counter-offensive seems counter-productive," he said in comments emailed to Newsweek. "Unless, of course, the counter-offensive is planned for somewhere else. "

"The Russian forces in Bakhmut have to come from somewhere—thinning their defensive lines—and it is possible that the Ukrainians are deliberately focusing Russian attention on Bakhmut while preparing an attack in a more vulnerable spot."