Fact Check: RFK Jr. Claims U.S. Pushed Ukraine to War With Russia

Democratic 2024 presidential hopeful Robert F. Kennedy Jr. made a series of bold statements on Fox News this week, blaming the U.S. for precipitating the conditions that led to the Ukraine-Russia conflict.

Kennedy argued with host Sean Hannity that attempts to de-escalate violence between the Ukrainian Army and Russian separatist forces in the Donbas and Luhansk regions prior to the war had been hamstrung by U.S. involvement that took the journey toward peace off-course.

However, Kennedy's comments were quickly picked apart on social media, with claims that he had got several aspects of the history between the two nations wrong and misunderstood the context behind the conflict.

Speaking on Tuesday night, Kennedy made claims including that the U.S. pushed Ukraine into the war on two occasions, that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had signed a series of agreements intended to de-escalate violence, and that Russian President Vladimir Putin had withdrawn troops following the invasion in 2022.

Responding to Kennedy's comments in a tweet viewed 800,000 times, Financial Times Ukraine journalist Christopher Miller on July 26, 2023, wrote "Not a single thing RFK says here is even remotely accurate."

Referring to claims made about the Minsk Accords, a pair of agreements made in 2014 and 2015 that were meant to (but didn't) end violence, Miller said: "US didn't "push" Ukraine into war twice; Russia invaded twice. Zelensky didn't run on or sign Minsk 2. Minsk 2 wasn't 2019 or 2022; it was 2015." Miller added that "Putin didn't withdraw troops, he sent more."

While Kennedy's spokespeople have responded to some of these comments since the interview, Newsweek investigated in further detail whether a selection of his key claims held up to scrutiny.

"Ukraine (was pushed) into the war (by the U.S.) on two occasions"

The central premise of Kennedy's claims is the signing of the Minsk Accords. These agreements were designed to stop fighting in eastern Ukraine, signed in September 2014 and February 2015. While they did reduce fighting between Ukraine and Russian-backed separatists, the accords never stopped the violence entirely and Putin announced they "no longer exist" before Moscow's full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022.

The U.S. was not a signatory or involved in either of these agreements and neither was Zelensky so, as we'll explore, it's not clear how RFK Jr's argument can stand up.

"(Zelensky) won...ran on one issue; signing the Minsk Accords"

This is not true. Zelensky didn't run on one issue, as articles assessing his campaign promises have shown. Although many of his promises were aimed at halting violence, it was not explicitly in tow with the agreements of the Minsk Accords, nor was it his only policy for election.

"As soon as he got in there (Zelensky becoming Ukrainian president) Victoria Nuland and the White House told him he couldn't do it (sign the Minsk Accords)"

Nuland was U.S. assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian affairs from 2013 to 2017, during which time she was heavily involved with Ukraine policy. Currently, Nuland works as under secretary of state for political affairs at the State Department.

There is simply no evidence that Nuland intervened to halt the signing of the Minsk Accords or other policies designed to end conflict. As we've established, Zelensky did not sign the Minsk Accords. Newsweek has contacted RFK Jr.'s spokesperson for clarification.

Nuland has previously been the target of Russian misinformation efforts. In 2022, she was linked to unfounded claims that Ukraine had bioweapons labs, based on comments from a March 8, 2022, Senate hearing that were taken widely out of context. The claims were spread by Russian state media, as well as conservative U.S. news outlets including Fox.

"(Zelensky) signed a new agreement that was the Minsk Accords II in 2022"

Again, the Minsk Accords II were not signed in 2022. It was signed in 2015 and it did not stop fighting.

Zelensky and Putin did meet in 2019 in Paris, France, ostensibly to discuss peaceful solutions. A 2022 biography of Zelensky said all parties expressed the intention of agreeing on the legal aspects of local self-government in the regions of Donbas and Luhansk.

Parties were said to have also expressed interest in the Steinmeier Formula, described as a simplified version of the Minsk Accords calling for local elections, under the regulation of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, in the separatist-controlled region in the east of Ukraine, followed by a special self-governing status.

The formula was signed in October 2019, by representatives from Ukraine and Russia, but led to protests in Kyiv.

According to a 2019 article by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, Zelensky said he had agreed to local elections in the Donbas but under Ukrainian law and not until both Russian forces withdrew and Ukraine retook control of its state border. Russia wanted elections first before the withdrawal of troops.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov called the agreement "an important step" but added that the "implementation of the Minsk agreements will continue."

Talks halted as the COVID pandemic swept the world. As lockdowns lifted globally, in February 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine.

"(The Minsk Accords II) would have allowed Donbas to stay, and Luhansk, to stay...to remain as part of Ukraine"

This is an oversimplified description of events. As previously mentioned, the Steinmeier Formula was intended to halt the deadlock between the two nations over changing the governing status of Donbas and Luhansk which had not been realized as a result of the Minsk Accords.

As mentioned, even after the signing of the Steinmeier Formula, there was still hesitancy as to when local elections would take place, either before or after the withdrawal of troops and Ukraine's reclamation of its state border. The simplicity of RFK Jr.'s argument does not mention the thousands of people who had died since 2014 either, which grew as negotiations continued. By the start of the war in 2022, 14,000 people had already been killed.

The Steinmeier Formula also lacked popularity domestically. According to Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, it was opposed by 23 percent of Ukrainian respondents, with two-thirds saying they were "unable to rate" it.

"Putin in good faith, began withdrawing troops from the Ukraine (after Minsk II was signed)"

Because of the way RFK Jr. frames his argument, incorrectly citing the Minsk Accords and agreements on Donbas and Luhansk autonomy, it's not immediately clear whether he is referring to forces fighting in the east of Ukraine pre-2022 or Russian forces that entered the country in February last year.

The initial Russian invasion force in 2022 consisted of around 190,000 troops, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank, and at no point did Putin begin "withdrawing troops" except in response to battlefield dynamics, as happened north of Kyiv in March and April of 2022.

A spokesperson for RFK Jr. told Newsweek earlier this week that the Democrat was, in fact, referring to the 2014 and 2015 agreements but insisted there was a troop withdrawal that came because of talks between Zelensky and Putin.

The spokesperson said: "The official reason given in the Western press was military setbacks. In fact, the Russians initiated the withdrawal as part of a tentative agreement with Zelensky, before Boris Johnson scuttled the agreement."

It has been suggested that in April 2022, then U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson tried to persuade Zelensky not to negotiate with Putin after Russian and Ukrainian negotiators met in late March in Istanbul for peace talks.

The extent of Johnson's influence has not been verified. The claim that Russian troops were "withdrawn" is dubious too. Troops retreated from Kyiv oblast in April, which they have failed to recapture since.

While described by National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan at a White House press briefing on April 4, 2022, as a "redeployment" rather than retreat, the notion that these frontline changes were influenced by talks in Istanbul, not battlefield strategy, seems doubtful and not supported by the available evidence.

No evidence was provided to support the claim Johnson blocked a peace agreement, and the claim that Russia withdrew its forces from Kyiv due to an agreement with Zelensky is widely disputed by political and military experts.

Newsweek has put each of the claims it investigated to RFK Jr.'s spokespeople via email. There has been no response as of the time of publication.

Unless RFK Jr. can provide substantive proof to support some of his arguments, the claims the Democratic hopeful made on Fox News simply do not match the facts.

It is not the first time that RFK Jr.'s spokespeople have had to clarify arguments he has made about the war in Ukraine. In June 2023, speaking on The Joe Rogan Experience podcast, he claimed that the U.S. had spent "$8 trillion on the Ukraine war. That's $24 trillion that they had to print to pay for nothing."

His spokesperson added: "What he meant was that spending on the Iraq and Afghanistan wars totaled $8 trillion. He apologizes for the misstatement."