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Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has failed to consistently increase his level of support among Democratic primary voters since announcing his presidential bid in April, according to polls collected by election statistics website FiveThirtyEight.
Kennedy Jr., a renowned anti-vaccine activist and environmental campaigner, revealed he's seeking the 2024 Democratic nomination on April 19 during a speech to supporters. His substantial media coverage hasn't yet translated into polling gains, with recent surveys suggesting just 14 percent to 15 percent of likely Democratic primary voters want him as the party's candidate.
No major Democratic politician has announced they will challenge Joe Biden for the Democratic nomination, since the president announced he would be seeking another White House term in April. Consequently, opposition is coming from more fringe figures within the party such as Kennedy Jr., son of the assassinated senator.
Polling indicates Donald Trump is Republican voters' favored 2024 presidential nominee, potentially setting up a rematch of the 2020 election.
The first FiveThirtyEight listed poll conducted following Kennedy Jr.'s announcement, which took place between April 21 and 24, put the activist on 19 percent of the vote among Democratic primary voters, as opposed to 62 percent for Biden and 9 percent for author Marianne Williamson. This Beacon Research/Shaw and Company Research poll was conducted for Fox News.
Separately, an Emerson College poll of 652 likely Democratic primary voters, which took place between April 24 and 25, put Kennedy on 21 percent of the vote, versus 70 percent for Biden.
However, an Echelon Insights survey of 513 likely Democratic voters, conducted from April 25-27, gave Kennedy just 10 percent of the vote, against 66 percent for the incumbent president.
More recent polling has put Kennedy Jr. between these two figures, including a HarrisX poll that indicated the campaigner has the backing of 15 percent of registered Democratic voters, with Biden on 62 percent. In total, 773 people were surveyed for the poll, which was conducted between June 14 and 15 for Harvard University.
A separate HarrisX survey of 381 registered Democratic voters, conducted for The Messenger from June 14-15, gave Kennedy 14 percent support, well behind Biden on 54 percent.
Newsweek has contacted Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for comment by email.
Earlier this month, YouTube removed a podcast interview with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. from its site after he told host Jordan Peterson that the rise in the number of transgender young people was the result of them "swimming through a soup of toxic chemicals."
Kennedy Jr. said: "I think a lot of the problems we see in kids—and particularly boys—it's probably under-appreciated how much of that is coming from chemical exposures, including a lot of the sexual dysphoria that we're seeing."
In a statement, Google, the parent company of YouTube, said the video was removed for violating the platform's "general vaccine misinformation policy."
Speaking to Newsweek, Thomas Gift, head of University College London's Centre on U.S. Politics, argued Kennedy Jr. will struggle to gain support among Democratic voters as an anti-vaccine activist.
He said: "The fact that he's running as an anti-vaxxer as a Democrat is just one of numerous reasons why he'll fail even to be a mild thorn in the side of Biden.
"While vaccine skepticism may or may not be creeping more into the mainstream, Kennedy isn't some broader manifestation of its political traction. In the end, he is what he looks like on the surface: an oddball politician with oddball views looking to trade on his last name to get his 15 seconds."
About the writer
James Bickerton is a Newsweek U.S. News reporter based in London, U.K. His focus is on covering news and politics ... Read more