Roe v. Wade Gives Democrats Unifying Action Amid Fears of Midterm Losses

While a leaked draft opinion indicating that the Supreme Court is poised to overturn Roe v. Wade has caused fear and outrage among abortion rights advocates, the change may "light a fire" among Democrats ahead of the upcoming 2022 midterm elections, according to one American electoral politics expert.

Even before the landmark Supreme Court decision was on the line, both Democrats and Republicans were immersed in a contentious midterms battle widely seen as crucial in deciding which party will have control of Congress. Recent polling has increasingly indicated that Democratic prospects in the midterms could be grim, but some believe that the threat to Roe v. Wade could give the party a needed boost due to the widespread condemnation among its members.

Elaine Kamarck is the director of the Center for Effective Public Management at the Brookings Institution, a nonprofit public policy organization, as well as a senior fellow in the Governance Studies program. Kamarck told Newsweek that Democrats have "been united behind Roe for some time," and she believes the potential overturning of the decision will "help to close the enthusiasm gap."

"Democrats going into this have been notably less enthusiastic than Republicans, and I think this is going to light a fire under a lot of Democrats," she said.

"I think that a lot of people, or a lot of Democrats, are going to turn out to vote. We'll begin to see it in this month's primaries," she added.

Kamarck said that the "fire" she believes will be lit under Democrats may not be consequential everywhere in the U.S. when the midterms arrive, but she believes it could be impactful in certain races.

"In a lot of places, it's not going to make any difference because the country is so polarized by geography. But I think that for the 30 or so swing races that it comes down to and for the Senate races, particularly, this could be a real game changer," she said.

Kamarck said that several U.S. House races and gubernatorial races may also be aided by increased Democratic enthusiasm in regard to Roe v. Wade. But she projected that Democrats would benefit most in Senate races since "you're dealing with a big whole state, not carefully drawn gerrymandered districts."

Chief Justice John Roberts confirmed on Tuesday the authenticity of the leaked draft opinion, which was obtained by Politico, but noted that it does not reflect a final decision from the court. Still, some Democratic politicians are already analyzing the role of Roe v. Wade, or the potential overturning of it, in the context of midterms.

President Joe Biden said in a statement Tuesday that if the Supreme Court does decide to overturn Roe, "it will fall on our nation's elected officials at all levels of government to protect a woman's right to choose."

"And it will fall on voters to elect pro-choice officials this November. At the federal level, we will need more pro-choice Senators and a pro-choice majority in the House to adopt legislation that codifies Roe, which I will work to pass and sign into law," he added.

The Democratic National Committee is also trying to focus the party's criticism on Republicans ahead of the upcoming elections.

"For decades, the Supreme Court has upheld precedent and protected access to safe, legal abortions, as well as the privacy of a decision made between women and their doctor. Now, due to extremist Republicans and conservative justices on the Supreme Court, women could lose access to the health care they need and that the overwhelming majority of Americans support," the committee said in a statement Tuesday.

"Make no mistake: reproductive rights will be on the ballot and this midterm election is more important now than ever before. Voters will make their voices heard, we will fight back with everything we have, and Republicans will have to answer for their party's relentless attacks on Americans' rights," the statement added.

Senator Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona, a Democrat who has broken with the party in recent months alongside Senator Joe Manchin on several priorities, was among a largely united Democratic front against overturning Roe.

"A woman's health care choices should be between her, her family, and her doctor. Overturning Roe v. Wade endangers the health and wellbeing of women in Arizona and across America," she said in a statement posted to Twitter on Tuesday.

Still, some polling suggests that Republicans may not be greatly impacted in the midterms in the wake of a Roe v. Wade decision. In March, less than 1 percent of respondents in a Gallup poll said that abortion was "the most important problem facing the country today."