Ron DeSantis' Chances of Beating Donald Trump, According to Polls

The Ron DeSantis campaign believes the Florida governor took advantage of Donald Trump skipping Wednesday night's debate, though polls continue to show a significant gap between the former president and his conservative challengers.

DeSantis was the highest-polling candidate among the eight Republicans on stage, though Trump's absence was noticeable. His position as the party's standard bearer was scrutinized by some, like former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, while avoided by others. His various legal troubles consumed a portion of the discussion led by Fox News's Bret Baier and Martha MacCallum.

Trump, who instead joined former Fox News host Tucker Carlson for an interview streamed on X, formerly Twitter, has maintained a large polling lead against DeSantis and the rest of the field, with his numbers among Republican voters strengthening over the course of his four indictments.

He will reportedly turn himself in to authorities today after last week's indictment issued out of Fulton County, Georgia, in relation to allegedly attempting to overturn the 2020 election.

"Ron DeSantis showed the nation that he is ready to beat Joe Biden, reverse our nation's decline, and revive the American Dream," DeSantis for President Campaign Manager James Uthmeier said in a post-debate statement shared with Newsweek.

"While other candidates attacked each other, Governor DeSantis stayed focused on the American people and fighting for their future with a clear vision to fix our economy, secure the border, empower parents, back law enforcement, and stand up to the leftist elites and the DC establishment."

Prior to the debate, a DeSantis campaign staffer told Newsweek that they expected "knives out" for the governor, describing the GOP nomination battle as "a two-man primary" with DeSantis possessing the only realistic chance to win in a general election.

Andrew Romeo, communications director for the campaign, told Newsweek prior to the debate, "No leader in the country has beaten back the establishment to deliver conservative victories more times than DeSantis."

He cited DeSantis' opposition to "woke corporations," which has led to legal battles against Disney, for example. He also mentioned "the biomedical security state."

DeSantis specifically mentioned immunologist and ex-White House medical advisor Anthony Fauci during the debate, saying he would have fired him due to his suggested lockdowns in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic.

'He's got to change minds'

A poll conducted before the debate by FiveThirtyEight, The Washington Post and Ipsos found that about 65 percent of Republican primary voters are considering supporting Trump, followed by 52 percent for DeSantis.

About 65.5 percent of the 4,968 respondents surveyed between August 15 to 22 find Trump a favorable candidate, and about 59 percent said the same about DeSantis. Former Vice President Mike Pence came in third in that category with about 40 percent.

Chris Jackson, a pollster and senior vice president at Ipsos, told Newsweek prior to the debate that Trump's lead has been so dominant that even if he had shown up and had a rough performance, it wouldn't have swayed his sturdy base.

The question for DeSantis going into Wednesday evening was whether he could recapture the conservative voter energy he attained following his large gubernatorial reelection victory, which has waned since he launched his presidential campaign in May.

"[DeSantis'] problem is that the number of Republicans who don't know who he is is pretty small," Jackson said. "So, he doesn't have the opportunity for sort of that easy progress of introducing himself to people. He's got to change minds."

A separate poll conducted by The Economist/YouGov between August 19 and 22 of 1,500 U.S. adults, including 1,309 registered voters, revealed a mixed bag of opinions on DeSantis.

He is viewed as very or somewhat favorable by 13 and 19 percent of respondents, respectively, but viewed somewhat and very unfavorably by 12 and 37 percent, respectively. Another 20 percent of respondents said they don't know how to feel about him.

Trump's numbers were more definitive. While 22 percent view him as very favorable, 47 percent of respondents view him very unfavorably and only 4 percent of those surveyed said they don't know how to feel about him.

About 44 percent of respondents said they would vote for the Democratic candidate if the election was held today, and 40 percent would support the Republican candidate. About 13 percent remained unsure.

Additionally, 53 percent of respondents said they don't care if Trump signs a loyalty pledge to support the eventual nominee if it isn't him, as the Republican National Committee has strongly encouraged before the primary season.

DeSantis has struggled to gain any traction to minimize Trump's impact on the Republican base.

A CBS News/YouGov poll released Sunday found that Trump supporters view the former president as a better source of information than their family, friends and religious leaders.