Ron DeSantis Faces Make-or-Break Debate Moment

Ron DeSantis has a chance to reignite his stuttering presidential campaign when he appears in the second Republican presidential debate on Wednesday evening, with one political scientist telling Newsweek: "I don't think so many primary voters have made up their minds that the nomination is sealed."

The event is taking place at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, California, with seven GOP hopefuls confirming they will be taking part. Notably Donald Trump, the current frontrunner, has indicated he won't be participating. He also skipped the first debate and will instead address automobile workers in Michigan.

Over the past few months Trump has built up a commanding lead over DeSantis, his closest rival for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, with the polling aggregate run by polling aggregate website FiveThirtyEight giving him an average of 54.7 percent support from likely GOP primary voters, against just 13.9 percent for DeSantis. Thus Wednesday's debate will give the Florida governor an opportunity to remake his pitch to Republicans, and try and claw back some of the support he has lost over the past few months.

Speaking to Newsweek David A. Bateman, an associate professor who teaches politics at Cornell University, argued the debate is an opportunity for DeSantis, but cautioned that greater public exposure hasn't boosted his popularity thus far.

He said: "DeSantis's trajectory has been like a lot of also-rans in previous Republican primaries. A spurt of support based on media coverage, including support among donors and activists, and then a decline as media attention moves on or becomes more critical. He remains the most likely alternative to Trump, but that's largely because everyone else is doing so poorly and because, I presume, DeSantis was able to build up some campaign infrastructure during his period in the sun. The debate could help him, but most evidence suggests that the more people get to know him the less appealing they find him.

"I don't think so many primary voters have made up their minds that the nomination is sealed; voting during the primary season can be quite fluid. Coordinating around alternatives gets easier once people start under- or over-performing expectations (think about the quick coordination around Biden). Trump's great weapon has always been to keep attention on himself, and until one of the other candidates is able to break that hold he's going to be the favorite for the GOP primary."

However Thomas Whalen, an associate professor of political science at Boston University, told Newsweek Trump has already won the Republican primary regardless of what happens at Wednesday's debate.

Jokingly he commented: "Is Ron DeSantis still running for president? For that matter, are they still having Republican debates? The race for the nomination is over. Full stop. Trump has it wrapped up, even if he ends up campaigning for president next year from a jail cell."

Newsweek has approached Governor DeSantis for comment by email.

DeSantis was confronted over his poor polling with Republican voters, compared to Trump, during a Fox News appearance on Tuesday, when host Laura Ingraham asked how he could "go from number two to number one" given the former president's commanding lead.

The Florida governor replied: "We've had three straight election cycles in a row where Democrats have a playbook to beat Republicans and if we repeat that same playbook in 24 we're going to lose.

"I'm the only guy running that can say everything I promised my voters I would do I delivered, on 100 percent of the promises, so yes I will beat Biden, but even more importantly than that I'm the guy that will actually deliver 100 percent of the results that we need to turn this country around."

Earlier this month Trump claimed DeSantis had fallen "like a very badly injured bird from the sky" whilst speaking at a conference organized by a conservative group in Washington D.C., which the Florida governor also attended.