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Did Florida Governor Ron DeSantis just make himself unelectable as president? If the midterm elections of 2022 were anything to go by—and they are—the answer to this question is yes. Access to abortion proved to be the pivotal issue in the 2022 midterm elections, especially among swing independent women voters. Navigating the issue in a way that keeps conservative voters in your corner without alienating swing voters is going to be crucial in 2024. And while former President and current presidential candidate Donald Trump has recognized extreme positions on abortion are not helpful to the candidacy of Republicans, a recent blunder by the ambitious Florida Governor and presumed Trump challenger suggests that DeSantis has not.
A few weeks ago, the Florida state legislature, which has been incredibly accommodating to DeSantis, proposed an extreme bill that would ban abortion after six weeks of pregnancy, and DeSantis committed to signing the legislation. The new law would join an existing Florida law that requires any pregnant woman to schedule two doctor's appointments at least 24 hours apart in order to receive an abortion. Taken together, these laws would mean many women would not even know they were pregnant before the time would lapse during which they could receive abortion services legally.
In light of what we learned during the midterm elections, DeSantis's enthusiasm for signing the law marks a major mistake in what has been a carefully curated public image.
Indeed, until very recently, it would have been a good bet to assume DeSantis would avoid such a blunder. He seemed to be biding his time allowing Trump to wear out his welcome with Republican voters, repeating the same old grievances and offering nothing by way of a new vision.
By contrast, DeSantis with his remarkable 19-point margin of victory in his gubernatorial re-election bid was projecting an image of a governor who got things done while knowing how to attack "wokeness" with both energy and press savviness.
DeSantis assiduously avoided being tagged a hard-line election denier, a label which had sunk the elections of so many major Republican candidates last November. As importantly, Florida under DeSantis had a restrictive but not extremist approach to abortion, which up until now has been legal up to 15 weeks, making Florida an abortion access refuge for a number of surrounding states with far more extreme restrictions.
It was against this promising backdrop, with the prospect of Trump having three or four indictments around his neck making him probably unelectable, that DeSantis stepped in it, and stepped in it badly.
This could very well be the end of his not-yet-official campaign. After all, for any Republican to win the presidency, it comes down to winning a majority of six or seven swing states. To do so, performing well among suburban voters is absolutely critical, and among that demographic, independent women voters are key.
And here's the thing about independent women voters: They don't like abortion extremists. There is no other issue that could alienate more suburban independent women voters than something that gets this close to a total abortion ban.
The other issue that completely turned off the same voters in the midterm elections was election denialism, and the anti-democracy sentiments that were at the heart of those expressing support for overturning legitimate elections. And while DeSantis avoided getting tagged with this issue, he has taken the position that supporting Ukraine's efforts to fight off a Russian invasion is not a vital interest of the United States.
President Biden would have a field day connecting the dots between those who undermine our democracy at home and those who will not stand up to Putin's attempt to destroy democracy abroad.
Many Republican leaders in Washington vociferously rejected DeSantis stated position on Ukraine, leading DeSantis to make clear he believes Putin is a war criminal.
DeSantis clearly does not want to be outflanked by Trump among Republican primary voters on foreign policy. But extreme MAGA primary voters are not going to decide the general election; suburban women voters in swing states will. Taking a position that seems to give any comfort to Putin that we are not resolute in opposing his invasion is simply not a way to win over that critical voting bloc.
Independent women in swing states made their views abundantly clear last November on the issues of abortion and democracy, and Ron DeSantis before even declaring his candidacy could not have taken positions that are more alienating to those who will decide who will next be president of the United States.
DeSantis may believe he can win the presidency by showing he will stand up to "the woke," but he better wake up and realize who will decide this election. But given his new stand on abortion access, Ron DeSantis has already made himself unelectable.
Tom Rogers is an editor-at-large for Newsweek, the founder of CNBC and a CNBC contributor. He also established MSNBC and is the former CEO of TiVo. Currently, executive chair of Engine Gaming & Media, and a member of Keep Our Republic, an organization dedicated to preserving the nation's democracy.
The views expressed in this article are the writer's own.
