Donald Trump's Enemy May Be His Key to Defeating Nikki Haley Threat

Former President Donald Trump's greatest Republican enemy, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, could be his key to defeating former United Nations ambassador Nikki Haley's growing momentum in the GOP race.

The GOP primary field shrank again Wednesday night after former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie suspended his presidential campaign in what was seen as a major boost for Haley. A CNN/University of New Hampshire poll released Tuesday found that 65 percent of Christie's supporters would turn to Haley if he weren't on the primary ballot.

But Trump could thwart Haley's recent surge with the help of DeSantis, who, despite being Trump's greatest GOP threat at one point, is facing stagnant support for his presidential bid. If DeSantis exits the 2024 race, it will likely make the Republican contest a head-to-head match between Trump and Haley, but polls and experts suggest Trump would see the greatest benefit.

DeSantis bowing out would further Trump's already significant lead in the race while handing Haley some good news—but not enough to beat the former president.

DeSantis has already signaled that he needs to win Iowa's first-in-the-nations caucuses next week in order to secure the Republican nomination. In October, he said that "it's not about the polls, it's about Iowa" when it comes to winning the primaries.

The governor has heavily invested in the Hawkeye state. He has campaigned in all 99 counties and secured endorsements from Iowa's governor and the state's most prominent evangelical leader. The leadership PAC aligned with his campaign, Great American Comeback, has donated nearly $100,000 to a group of Iowa legislators who have endorsed DeSantis' White House bid.

"DeSantis has bet the farm on Iowa," political consultant Jay Townsend told Newsweek. "Absent a close second-place finish, his money will dry up, and he'll be forced to do a Christie."

As of Thursday, Trump leads in Iowa with 53.3 percent support from GOP voters, according to RealClearPolitics poll averages. Haley is in second place with 18 percent, and DeSantis is in third with 15 percent.

DeSantis' campaign insisted that he's in it for the "long haul" amid a report from The Hill that a major DeSantis donor and political operative told Douglas MacKinnon, who served in the White House as a writer for Presidents Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush, that the governor would drop out of the race if he loses the Iowa caucuses.

If DeSantis does decide to exit the race, however, both polls and experts believe it would be a victory for the Trump campaign.

While Haley appears to see the greatest benefit from a DeSantis exit in Iowa, Trump's advantage would be much larger nationally and in New Hampshire, which will hold the second party contest, polls show.

Iowa polls conducted by Civiqs/Iowa State University, Emerson College, and Beacon/Shaw/Fox Business found that if DeSantis were to drop out before next Monday, 43 percent of his supporters, on average, would back Haley. Only 29 percent would go for Trump.

In New Hampshire, surveys from Emerson/WHDH-TV and CNN/University of New Hampshire indicate that 35 percent of DeSantis supporters would flock to the former president in the event of a DeSantis absence, while 32 percent would support Haley instead.

Averages of six national polls conducted in November and December show that Trump would gain 48 percent of DeSantis' supporters nationally. Comparably, Haley would only receive 27 percent of those DeSantis backers.

Republican strategist Alex Patton told Newsweek that the polls indicate a "significant portion" of DeSantis voters will go to Trump if he leaves the race, while Haley is only likely to pick up the "remaining 'protest vote'" of DeSantis—notably a "smaller percentage" than the one Trump would inherit.

GOP consultant Matt Klink also said that Trump would benefit more.

He told Newsweek that because DeSantis supporters are typically more conservative populists than Haley's supporters, they would naturally flock to Trump. Patton said that since DeSantis and Haley fiercely attacked each other at the January 10 debate, "one would expect most votes to revert to the frontrunner."

"Although Haley will inherit Christie's votes in New Hampshire, it is doubtful that she'll benefit from a DeSantis withdrawal since he's essentially been running as a Trump clone without the chaos," Towsend said.

The one advantage that a DeSantis departure would give Haley, however, would be to make her the "clear alternative choice" for the Republican primaries.

"[It will] allow her to go head-to-head with Donald Trump in South Carolina and on Super Tuesday," Klink said. "She has consistently said she is running against Donald Trump—now she would get that opportunity."

"Trump would continue to attack Haley, largely on personal issues, and still not debate her, but that strategy becomes increasingly difficult as Haley gains support among a sizable chunk of the Republican electorate," he added.