Ron DeSantis' Polling Withers Under the Spotlight

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Ron DeSantis has fallen sharply behind Donald Trump as Republican voters' favored GOP candidate for the 2024 presidential election, according to recent polling.

While the Florida Governor has yet to officially announce he's standing for the Republican presidential nomination, he has been visiting key primary states such as Iowa and New Hampshire, as he promotes his book, The Courage to Be Free.

DeSantis is widely regarded as the most dangerous Republican rival Trump could face in his bid for the 2024 nomination, with no third candidate polling even close to the two frontrunners. If the Florida governor continues to fall back, or chooses not to announce his candidacy, Trump could be left with a virtually free run for the GOP presidential nomination.

A new Morning Consult survey, conducted March 17-19, found 54 percent of "potential Republican primary voters" support Trump for the 2024 nomination, versus 26 percent for DeSantis.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis
Ron DeSantis speaks to Iowa voters gathered at the Iowa State Fairgrounds on March 10, 2023, in Des Moines, Iowa. Recent polling suggests Donald Trump has built up a significant lead over the Florida Governor... Scott Olson/GETTY

Former Vice President Mike Pence, who has not said he's standing, is third on 7 percent, followed by ex-U.S. UN ambassador Nikki Haley, who has announced her candidacy, with 4 percent.

Morning Consult surveyed 3,394 potential Republican primary voters, defined as "any registered voter who said they plan to vote in the Republican presidential primary or caucus in their state in 2024."

A separate Monmouth University survey of 521 Republican registered or leaning voters, conducted March 16-20, also found Trump has a significant lead over DeSantis as the most popular candidate for 2024.

In total, 41 percent of Republican voters told the pollsters the former president would be their favored GOP nominee in 2024, versus 27 percent for the Florida governor.

This represents a sharp reversal of fortunes for DeSantis versus a previous Monmouth University poll in December, which put the governor on 39 percent against just 26 percent for Trump.

The survey found DeSantis is still competitive against Trump in a head-to-head, having the support of 46 percent of Republicans in this scenario, against 47 percent for the New York businessman. Trump would also easily beat either Pence or Haley in a head-to-head, by 70 percent to 23 percent, and 73 percent to 21 percent, respectively.

Over the past few weeks Trump, and some of his top allies, have become increasingly critical of DeSantis. This intensified on Monday, when the Florida governor refused to say he would try and obstruct Trump's extradition to New York, if he faces charges relating to the alleged payment of hush money to Stormy Daniels in 2016.

Pointedly, DeSantis also commented: "I don't know what goes into paying hush money to a porn star to secure silence over some type of alleged affair."

In response, Steve Bannon accused DeSantis of having a "weasel approach," while Donald Trump Jr. described him as "100 percent controlled opposition."

Trump also fired back on his Truth Social website, in a message he later deleted, saying: "Ron [DeSantis] will probably find out about this sometime in the future when he's unfairly and illegally attacked by a woman (or possibly a man!) with false accusations."

Newsweek has contacted Trump for comment via his official website, and Governor DeSantis by email.

About the writer

James Bickerton is a Newsweek U.S. News reporter based in London, U.K. His focus is on covering news and politics in Texas, as well as other general news across the United States. James joined Newsweek in July 2022 from LBC, and previously worked for the Daily Express. He is a graduate of Oxford University. Languages: English. Twitter: @JBickertonUK. You can get in touch with James by emailing j.bickerton@newsweek.com


James Bickerton is a Newsweek U.S. News reporter based in London, U.K. His focus is on covering news and politics ... Read more