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Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is on track to lose the Republican primary in his home state if the GOP field doesn't narrow to just two frontrunners, according to the latest analysis from website Race to the WH.
The most recent Race to the WH model, undated on Monday, concluded Donald Trump is on track to either decisively or narrowly win 49 of the 50 states, with the two candidates tied in Utah, if the Republican field remains wide after the Nevada primary in February. If only Trump and DeSantis are running after Nevada, the governor is still forecast to lose decisively, but would pick up Florida and three other states.
Polling indicates Trump and DeSantis are the two frontrunners for the 2024 Republican presidential candidacy, with the former president enjoying a healthy lead over his rival. This sets up a possible rematch of the 2020 election, with President Biden having a commanding lead over the fringe Democratic candidates who are running against him for the party's nomination.
Race to the WH produces a new forecast for the Republicans 2024 presidential nomination contest every day, based on polls it believes are credible, adjusted according to size, pollster track record and how recently they were conducted.
According to its latest model, Trump is on track for a "decisive win" in the Florida Republican primary, if more than two GOP candidates are still running. This is a reversal from the Race to the WH forecast released on July 7 which concluded DeSantis would win his home state in this scenario, with Utah again tied and the other 48 states going to Trump.
By contrast, if only Trump and DeSantis remain in the race after the February Nevada primary, the governor is forecast "decisive" wins in Florida, Utah and Wisconsin, along with a narrow win in Tennessee. The other 46 states would all still opt for Trump.
Newsweek contacted Trump via the press contact form on his official website, and the DeSantis campaign via email on Tuesday.
In terms of delegates, which are awarded to the rival candidates after each primary race and will formally decide the GOP presidential pick at the party's national convention in July, Trump is on track for a comfortable win under either scenario.
If the field does not consolidate, Trump is forecast to win 2,045 delegates, well ahead of DeSantis in second place on 349 and former vice-president Mike Pence, on 25. The other candidates pick up the remainder of the delegates.
If the field narrows after Nevada, Trump is predicted to triumph with 1,929 delegates, beating DeSantis on 527 and third-placed South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott on just three.
To secure the Republican nomination a candidate needs the support of 1,234 nominees, which Trump easily achieves regardless of whether or not the race is narrowed down to just him and DeSantis.
During a Fox News interview, broadcast on Sunday, DeSantis blamed media "narratives" after being asked about his campaign difficulties.
He commented: "The media does not want me to be the nominee.
"I think that's very clear. Why? Because they know I'd beat Biden, but even more importantly, they know I would actually deliver on all these things."
About the writer
James Bickerton is a Newsweek U.S. News reporter based in London, U.K. His focus is on covering news and politics ... Read more