Ron DeSantis Will Win Only Florida in GOP Primary Battle, Forecast Predicts

Donald Trump is on track for a convincing Republican presidential primary victory over Ron DeSantis, according to a new model. The Florida governor is expected only to win one state if the GOP field doesn't consolidate, and three if it does.

The model, which is updated daily, was produced by polling analysis website Race to the WH. This is based on recent polls that are weighed based on their sample size, freshness and perceived reliability.

Trump and DeSantis are the two frontrunners for the GOP's 2024 presidential nomination, according to recent surveys, though the former president enjoys a strong lead. This could set up a rematch of the 2020 presidential election, with President Joe Biden polling well ahead of the fringe Democratic candidates who are challenging him for the party's nomination.

Race to the WH produced forecasts for two scenarios: one on which the Republican field "never consolidates;" and another for if, after the Nevada primary, which is scheduled for February 6, 2024, only Trump and DeSantis remain in the race.

In the first scenario, DeSantis is forecast to win only one primary, in his home state of Florida, with the race in Utah also "tied." A "decisive" or "narrow" Trump win is forecast for all 48 other states. Trump is expected to collect 1,774 delegates, which formally select the GOP candidate at the party's national convention in July, well above the 1,234 needed to secure the nomination. By contrast, DeSantis is forecast to win 440 delegates, with another 10 for former Vice President Mike Pence.

Trump's lead is expected to be even more convincing in the second scenario, in which Trump and DeSantis battle alone for most of the primary contest. If this happen, then Race to the WH expects DeSantis to have a "decisive" win in Wisconsin and Utah, along with a "narrow" win in Tennessee. The 47 other states, including Florida, which DeSantis won in the first round, are all listed as "decisive" or "narrow" Trump victories. Should this happen, Trump is forecast to get 2,048 delegates, against 406 for DeSantis and just two for Pence.

Newsweek has contacted Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis, via online media contact form and email respectively, asking for comment on the study.

DeSantis does have a substantial fundraising lead over Trump, according to figures reported by Fox News on Thursday.

The Florida Republican's campaign, and the affiliated Never Back Down political action committee, have raised $150 million, well ahead of the Trump campaign on $35 million.

DeSantis has said he stands by a controversial video criticizing Donald Trump for the strength of his ties with the LGBTQ+ community. It was shared by the DeSantis War Room Twitter account, which is affiliated to his campaign.

Appearing on conservative influencer Tomi Lahren's OutKick show, DeSantis described the former president as "a pioneer in injecting gender ideology into the mainstream."