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North Carolina's former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper appears well-positioned to take on incumbent GOP Senator Thom Tillis, recent polling data shows.
Newsweek reached out to press contacts for Cooper and Tillis for comment via email on Thursday.
Why It Matters
Democrats face a tough Senate map in 2026, with only a few seats seen as potential flip opportunities. Meanwhile, Republicans are eyeing Democratic-held Senate seats in Georgia and Michigan as potential pickups, especially considering President Donald Trump carried both states in the election last year.
Cooper served as North Carolina's governor from 2017 through 2024, leading the state as a Democrat despite Trump winning there in 2016, 2020 and 2024. Both of the state's senators since 2015 have been Republicans as well.
While the former governor has not said he plans to run for Senate, Democratic leaders are urging him to do so and he is seen by many as a strong candidate to take on Tillis.
What To Know
New polling released by The Carolina Journal, John Locke Foundation and Cygnal on Thursday showed Cooper is viewed favorably by a significantly larger portion of North Carolinians than Tillis.
The survey data showed the former Democratic governor is viewed favorably by 48 percent of respondents compared to 26 percent who view the incumbent Republican senator favorably. That puts Cooper more than 22 points ahead of Tillis.
The Republican's unfavorables are also higher than Cooper's—46 percent to 37 percent. The poll from May 11 to May 13 included 614 likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.94 percent.
A poll from March by Public Policy Polling (PPP) showed Cooper ahead of Tillis in a hypothetical matchup. The Democratic politician was backed by 47 percent of respondents compared to 43 percent who backed the GOP senator. An additional 9 percent said they were unsure who they would support.
The PPP survey additionally showed 47 percent had a positive view of Cooper and 42 percent had an unfavorable view. For Tillis, 25 percent said they approved of his job performance in the Senate while 46 percent disapproved.
That poll included 662 registered voters and was conducted on March 4 and March 5. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 points.
Can Democrats Flip North Carolina?
While North Carolina hasn't gone for a Democratic candidate in a presidential election since 2008, Democrats have managed to win statewide in recent cycles. Notably, Democratic Governor Josh Stein won in 2024, despite Trump also winning the state. Stein also won nearly 55 percent of the vote compared to Trump's approximate 51 percent.
The last Democrat to serve in the Senate for North Carolina was former Senator Kay Hagan. She won her election in 2008 but was defeated in her reelection bid six years later by Tillis.
The Cook Political Report at the moment rates the Senate race as "Lean" Republican.
What People Are Saying
Democratic strategist Doug Wilson told The Hill in March: "If Roy Cooper decides to run, it would really make the race one of the most competitive races in the country next year, could be the most of any Senate race in the country."
Morgan Jackson, longtime adviser to Cooper, told The Assembly in March on the former governor's plan: "He gets encouragement every single day from folks all across North Carolina as well as Democrat leaders around the country who really want him to run. He's been clear that he's going to take a little time to figure this out."
Tillis, in a statement posted to the Senate Republicans account on X, formerly Twitter, this week: "Under Republican leadership, America is coming back stronger than ever. With President Trump at the helm, we're securing our borders, unleashing energy, cracking down on crime, and driving unstoppable prosperity. The Golden Age is just beginning."
What Happens Next
It's unclear when or if Cooper will launch a Senate campaign. While early polls paint a positive picture for the potential Democratic candidate, many things could change in the coming months before the midterm in November 2026.
Recent historical precedent suggests that Democrats will do well overall in the upcoming midterm. Typically, the party of the president in power underperforms in the midterm—with the opposition picking up a substantial number of seats in Congress.
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About the writer
Jason Lemon is a Senior Politics Editor at Newsweek based in Brooklyn, New York. Prior to taking on the editor role, Jason's reporting focused ... Read more