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A new poll released hours after U.S. Senate candidates Kari Lake and Ruben Gallego faced off in a debate shows Gallego widening his lead over the Republican challenger in Arizona.
Gallego and Lake are battling for independent Senator Kyrsten Sinema's soon-to-be vacant seat, which could tip the power of the upper chamber, making a handful of down-ballot races, including Arizona's, closely watched.
The upper chamber is currently controlled by the Democrats, who hold a narrow majority of 51 seats as four independents caucus with the party, while Republicans hold 49 seats. However, November 5's election could shift who holds the majority.
On Wednesday night, Gallego, a former marine who served in Iraq, and Lake, a former television news anchor who lost her bid for Arizona governor in 2022 and claimed the election was rigged, debated a range of topics including abortion, immigration, border security, and foreign policy.
Most polls have shown Lake trailing Gallego over the past few months, with the most recent poll showing Gallego's lead has grown by one point since September.
An Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey of 1,000 likely voters conducted between October 5 and October 8 found Gallego with 50 percent support compared to Lake's 43 percent. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points.
The latest poll shows Lake edging up one percent, but Gallego slightly widening the margin, as September's Emerson College Polling/The Hill poll of 868 likely voters found Lake garnering 42 percent of the vote compared to Gallego's 48 percent. Last month's poll was conducted between September 15 and September 18 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.
Newsweek contacted Gallego and Lake's campaigns for comment via email on Thursday.
Other recent polls, such as a RMG Research survey of 783 likely voters conducted between September 30 and October 2, put Gallego ahead by 10 points on 52 percent to Lake's 42 percent. There was no stated margin of error.
Polling aggregates, including FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics, consistently put Gallego ahead of Lake by more than a 6-point margin.
While polls in the state favor the Democratic Senate candidate, former President Donald Trump is leading Vice President Kamala Harris in the presidential race, according to Arizonan voters.
The same Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey in October found 49 percent of likely Arizona voters supporting Trump, the Republican nominee—down from 52% in July—and 47 percent backing Harris, the Democratic candidate—up from 44% in July.
Nationally, the election is extraordinarily close and could be decided by a handful of tight battleground races.
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About the writer
Mandy Taheri is a Newsweek reporter based in Brooklyn. She joined Newsweek as a reporter in 2024. You can get ... Read more