Revealed: One in Five of Russian Air Force Losses During War Self-Inflicted

More than a fifth of Russia's known manned aircraft and helicopter losses in the 18 months since Moscow launched its invasion of Ukraine have not been due to enemy action, data compiled by Newsweek has revealed.

Between February 24, 2022, when Moscow's troops crossed over into Ukraine, and August 17, 2023, 21.7 percent—or one in five—of Russia's verified manned aircraft losses, which includes jets, helicopters and transport aircraft, were blamed on Russian system malfunctions, pilot errors, friendly fire or other accidents not related to direct combat against Ukraine.

High Russian aircraft losses during training or non-combat missions can be chalked up to several factors, experts suggest, not least Russia's oversights in maintaining its aircraft, investing time in training pilots to a high standard and being rigorous about safety procedures.

See Newsweek's full list of Russian Air Force's verified non-combat manned aircraft losses here.

Newsweek used the open-source intelligence (OSINT) outlet Oryx as base level for the total number of confirmed Russian aviation losses. Additionally, Newsweek found dozens of non-combat related losses, based on Russian state and local media reports, including some that do not appear to be listed by Oryx.

Per Oryx data, Russia has lost a confirmed 186 piloted aircraft and helicopters during the war as of August 17, with 13 marked as "non-combat" losses. According to the cases Newsweek has been able to locate and corroborate with media reports, as of August 17, 2023, at least 48 units were lost independent of Ukrainian operations. These include seven Su-25 jets, four MiG-31 supersonic interceptors and three of Russia's prized scout-attack Ka-52 "Alligator" helicopters.

Newsweek is not counting in this tally Russia's overall manned aircraft and helicopter losses, which would include those lost because of Kyiv's activity.

Oryx's figures for Russia's total visually confirmed aircraft losses in the year and a half of full-scale war stand at 78 combat aircraft, two strategic bombers, two command and control aircraft, two transport aircraft, and 102 helicopters, making up a combined total of 186. The additional cases discovered by Newsweek bring this total to 221, including an extra 17 jets or planes and 18 helicopters.

The official tally from Ukraine's military is higher, putting total Russian aircraft losses at 315 and helicopters at 314, as of Thursday, but Newsweek is unable to verify those figures independently and is thus basing its estimates solely on the OSINT data and its own findings.

Based on these figures, at least 48 of the 221 verified manned aviation losses were not-combat related, or were otherwise self-inflicted, which amounts to around 21.7 percent, or approximately one in five. That includes 26.7 percent of all fighter jets and other types of planes lost in the period in question, and 17.5 percent of the helicopter losses.

While these numbers are by no means exhaustive, with further unreported losses, both combat and non-combat, likely to emerge (and some may never be revealed), they still offer a damning assessment of the current state of Russia's air force.

Why Do Russian Aircraft Keep Crashing?

Accidents during training are normal and expected, but a competent air force will try to minimize these often-fatal accidents, said Frederik Mertens, a strategic analyst with the Hague Center for Strategic Studies (HCSS). "Russia lacks experienced pilots," he told Newsweek.

Poor basic training pre-dated Moscow's war effort. In February 2022, Russia had many more jets than truly experienced pilots, with the less experienced contingent having around half the flying time usually designated for pilots in NATO air forces, Mertens said. Training aircraft before the war also left much to be desired.

"The comparison becomes even more dire if we factor in the advanced trainers that NATO pilots routinely use to train not only their own skills, but to train complex operations with other pilots," he said.

The intensity of the air operations and the scale of Russian losses have forced Moscow to deploy its instructors on combat missions.

"This both limits the time these pilot trainers have to train other pilots and exposes your trainers to losses," Mertens said.

This has a knock-on effect. The Russian air force needs to recruit more pilots, but there are fewer instructors to teach them.

The problems also extend to the aircraft, which Mertens said were poorly maintained, and have questionable safety precautions. On top of scant training, this adds to the reasons why Russian self-inflicted losses are a significant proportion of their downed aircraft.

Ultimately, it comes down to constricted training time, few experienced pilots and the pressures of constant combat, said Paul van Hooft, another analyst with the HCSS. "Accidents are a feature of armed forces under prolonged extreme stress," he told Newsweek.

Russia's Defense Ministry has been contacted for comment via email.