Russia's Costly Avdiivka Assault Behind Staggering Jump in Losses: UK

Russia's recent strategically flawed offensive on the Donetsk town of Avdiivka has had a devastating effect on the number of casualties among its armed forces in Ukraine, according to the U.K.'s Ministry of Defence (MoD).

In an intelligence update on the Russian invasion on Sunday, the British ministry said that repeated assaults on the town—all of which have so far been repelled by Ukrainian armed forces—had contributed to a 90 percent increase in casualties recorded by Kyiv's military.

The U.K. MoD said it was likely that since the start of the war in February 2022, Russia has suffered between 150,000 and 190,000 permanent casualties, which includes those killed and those wounded beyond the ability to serve, and as many as 290,000 when troops who have "recovered and [are] due to return to the battlefield in some capacity" are included in the total.

It noted that these figures did not include casualties incurred by the paramilitary Wagner Group and those under their command who fought in the town of Bakhmut, also in the Donetsk Oblast and around 70 miles north of Avdiivka.

Newsweek approached the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs via email for comment on Sunday.

Colonel Oleksandr Shtupun, a spokesperson for Ukraine's Tavria group of forces that covers Avdiivka, told Newsweek on Tuesday that in the opening phase of the Avdiivka offensive—the only major Russian push since Kyiv's summer counteroffensive began—around 800 Russian troops were dying a day, though this number had since fallen, he said.

In the first five days of the assault, Shtupun estimated Russia lost 3,000 soldiers and 61 tanks, as well as many other military vehicles.

Russian armored vehicles have been repelled by artillery fire and anti-tank mines, in some cases attempting to cross open minefields, in a sign of a lack of tactical thinking among Russian forces that may have contributed to the offensive lack of success.

Avdiivka sits in a bulge in the Russian line in eastern Ukraine and would make the city of Donetsk easier to defend against a Ukrainian push, experts say, while successfully taking it would provide the Kremlin with a much-needed victory as support for the war at home wanes.

But the town, which sits at the top of a hill and is thus easier to defend, has been reinforced by a buildup of Ukrainian defenses, while aerial units have been able to make use of drones to knock out Russian vehicles and positions.

Russian forces have made minor territorial gains around the town and have conducted aerial bombardments of Avdiivka, those on the ground there say, but it remains firmly in Ukrainian hands.

While Russia is increasingly having to rely on older vehicles and equipment due to depletion on the battlefield, its military chiefs continue to throw more men at the front lines in an apparent disregard for personnel losses, with the knowledge that they will be replenished with more mobilized men.

"Since February 2022, Russia has significantly increased its force footprint on the ground in Ukraine by intensifying recruitment using financial incentives and the partial mobilization conducted in Autumn 2022," the MoD said on Sunday. "This increase of personnel is the major factor behind Russia's ability to both defend held territory and conduct costly assaults."