Russia-Belarus to Run Joint Air Force Drills, Kyiv Fears Renewed War Push

Russia and Belarus began joint air force exercises on Monday, amid concern Minsk may start participating in the conflict in Ukraine directly, as Kyiv's intelligence said Russia is planning a renewed war push in 2023.

The two countries are conducting joint air force drills from January 16 to February 1, the Belarusian defense ministry said. There are growing fears Russian President Vladimir Putin could lobby his Belarusian counterpart, Alexander Lukashenko, to join the conflict.

Belarus said it would activate all of its air force bases, air force training grounds and air defense forces for the drills, with joint air patrols planned along the Belarusian border. Belarus borders Russia and Ukraine.

Although Minsk has maintained that the drills are purely defensive, and that it seeks "to increase interoperability in the joint performance of combat training tasks," Ukrainian officials have warned residents that air raid warnings are likely to increase as a result of the exercises.

"Important! From 16 January to 1 February, a joint flight and tactical exercise will be held with the aviation units of the armed forces of the Republic of Belarus and the Russian Federation," Viacheslav Chaus, the governor of Ukraine's Chernihiv region, said on his Telegram channel on Monday.

"The number of air alarms on the territory of Chernihiv oblast and the country in general may increase significantly. Don't ignore any threat message," the official added.

While Belarus, a loyal Kremlin ally, hasn't directly joined the Ukraine conflict, Russian troops have been allowed to do exercises on Belarusian territory since before the beginning of the war, and the country was used by Russia to launch its invasion on Ukraine on February 24, 2022.

Lukashenko agreed in October 2022 to create a joint "regional grouping of troops" with Russia, saying the decision was made in response to provocations by the NATO military alliance on its border with Ukraine, and Ukrainian plans to attack Belarus.

Since then, Russia has been sending military equipment to Belarus. The two nations also extended joint military drills on January 8 amid fears that Minsk is being pressured to join the war.

On Sunday, the Belarusian defense ministry cited Pavel Muraveyko, first deputy state secretary of the Belarusian Security Council, as saying that the situation on the Ukraine-Belarus border was "not very calm."

"We're maintaining restraint and patience, keeping our gunpowder dry," Muraveyko said. "We have the necessary set of forces and means that will respond to any manifestations of aggression or a terrorist threat on our territory."

The joint drills are "exclusively defense," he told the Belta state news agency.

Meanwhile, Ukraine's intelligence service has said that Russia is planning "a very serious offensive in February."

Newsweek reached out to Ukraine's foreign ministry for comment.

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