What Moving Hypersonic Missiles to Belarus Means for Ukraine War

Russia recently made headlines by reportedly deploying hypersonic missiles to Belarus, but the move is unlikely to immediately change the war, experts have told Newsweek.

On Tuesday, British defense officials published satellite imagery which they said showed two MiG-31K Foxhound jets parked at the Machulishchy Airfield in the Minsk region on October 17. Close by the aircraft was a canister the report said "is associated with the AS-24 KILLJOY air launched ballistic missile," which can be launched from the aircraft.

The British defense officials did not specify if there were more than one of the nuclear-capable missiles, also known as the Kh-47M2 Kinzhal. But it raised alarm over whether Russian President Vladimir Putin could lean on Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko and use Belarus as a staging ground for an assault on Ukraine, as Moscow did earlier in the war.

With Russian forces reeling from Ukraine's counteroffensive and strikes from U.S.-supplied M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), the Killjoy missile can mostly evade Ukraine's air defense systems, as Newsweek previously reported.

Alex Kokcharov, a London-based country risk analyst with S&P Global Market Intelligence, said given that Russia had been using Belarusian territory for missile launches and Belarusian military airfields for military aircraft sorties since February, the presence of the aircraft and the missile was "nothing new."

"However, it is my understanding that Ukraine is becoming increasingly irritated about such behavior by Belarus, where it provides a staging ground for Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities," Kokcharov told Newsweek.

"This increases the likelihood of retaliatory Ukrainian strikes on Belarusian military sites such as airfields or radars. However, these locations would be more likely in southern Belarus and not in Machulishchy, which is next to Minsk," he added.

The British Ministry of Defense assessment said on Tuesday that stocks of the missile are "very limited" and its deployment gave little advantage in striking Ukrainian targets. It was likely to be a "message to the West" to depict Belarus as "increasingly complicit" in the war, it added.

"I think it is further messaging, playing to the domestic audience in Russia that it is not alone," said former British intelligence officer Philip Ingram, who believes Moscow wants to signal to Kyiv that it must retain some military capability focused on Belarus.

"Russia currently uses Belarus airspace and land for some attacks—so I don't see any great change," he told Newsweek. "Lukashenko needs his military in Belarus to secure his power base and if Belarus collapses, it could have a domino effect on a weakening Putin and he knows it."

In August, Russia's defense ministry said it had deployed three MiG-31 heavy interceptors which were adapted for carrying Kinzhal hypersonic missiles to the Kaliningrad region in Western Russia, but this was believed to be a move to pressure Ukraine and the West.

Ukrainian news outlet Hromadske reported that Russia has used these missiles several times against military targets in Ukraine's Ivano-Frankivsk region on March 18, the Odesa region on May 9, and in the Vinnytsia region on August 7.

Newsweek has reached out to the Ukrainian and Russian defense ministries and the Belarusian foreign ministry for comment.