Russia Counts Cost of Bloody Ukraine Winter

November and December proved the costliest months for Russian troops in Ukraine—per estimated casualty figures published daily by Kyiv—since the beginning of the full-scale invasion in February, a Newsweek analysis has found.

Despite the slowed tempo of fighting on much of the front line due to difficult weather conditions, Ukrainian forces claim to have inflicted high casualties on the Russian occupiers in the first weeks of winter as Kyiv looks to prepare the ground for its next counteroffensives.

In November, Ukraine's armed forces claimed to have "liquidated" 17,060 Russian troops, as well as another 17,080 in December; an average of around 560 Russian service-members each day throughout both months.

The intensity of Russian losses appears to have been ramping up throughout 2022, according to the figures. Kyiv claimed to have "liquidated" around 12,740 Russian troops in October; 11,180 in September; 7,070 in August; 5,230 in July; 5,100 in June; 7,300 in May; and 5,600 in April.

So far in January 2023, the Ukrainian armed forces have claimed 2,950 Russian troops lost, bringing the overall estimate since February 24 to 108,920.

The November-December casualties are the highest claimed since Russian troops crossed the border in late February. Then, the Ukrainian command claimed to have liquidated around 5,710 Russian troops within the first four days of the fighting, with another 12,000 in the following month of March.

Newsweek has contacted the Russian Defense Ministry for comment.

The Ukrainian figures are based on daily reports from combat units, and are prone to over- or undercounting. The Ukrainian armed forces say the figures are estimates and not fully verified. Kyiv claims to have inflicted almost 110,000 Russian casualties since February 24.

Former Ukrainian Defense Minister Andriy Zagorodnyuk told Newsweek that the figures are broadly reliable, but should be considered only estimates. "It's impossible to make any accurate ones because the system of delivering the reports from the units is very subjective and it's very general," he said.

Ukraine's figures broadly chime with U.S. estimates. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley said in November that "well over" 100,000 Russian troops had been killed or wounded in Ukraine.

Mark Voyger, a former special adviser for Russian and Eurasian affairs to then-commander of U.S. Army Europe General Ben Hodges, told Newsweek: "I don't think that the issue here is trust. I don't think that the Ukrainians are trying to delude anyone intentionally as to the number of Russian casualties.

"I think it's just a matter of to what extent they're able to calculate the numbers correctly and then record them in a relatively reliable way.

"Of course, there's always the element of information warfare in the sense that if you expect each side to try to minimize their numbers and maximize the casualties on the other side in the public space," added Voyger, now a non-resident senior fellow at Center for European Analysis and professor at American University of Kyiv.

"But, even if we don't have the ability to independently verify the daily numbers the Ukrainians put out, they still form a trend. And I think the trend itself is trustworthy. The trend makes sense."

Russia does not routinely release its own casualty figures, so far confirming the deaths of fewer than 6,000 regular troops, and fewer than 4,000 additional fighters drawn from Russia's puppet so-called "people's republics" in the occupied Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. The Kremlin also does not include killed Wagner Group or other mercenary fighters in its totals.

Likewise, Ukraine gives little information about its casualties. Kyiv has admitted some 13,000 deaths since February 24.

Foreign partners suggest a somewhat bloodier picture. Milley and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen have both suggested a total of around 100,000 casualties on the Ukrainian side, though this may be a cumulative figure of killed and wounded for both military and civilians.

A 3:1 ratio is often used to estimate losses of an attacking force going against a defending force, respectively. With the Russians on the offensive in parts of Donetsk, it is likely that their casualties are several times higher than among the Ukrainians. But establishing losses for the defenders is difficult when Kyiv guards details so closely.

"The fact that the Ukrainians are not announcing additional mobilization at this point kind of shows me that they're not suffering such heavy losses," Voyger said. "At least, nothing comparable to what the Russians are."

Russia's continued punishing losses in Ukraine have prompted speculation that a second wave of mobilization may be near. The first wave in September planned to conscript, train, and send at least 300,000 people to Ukraine, as Moscow sought to stabilize its front lines amid successful Ukrainian counter-attacks.

Through fall and early winter, Russian forces have tried to halt Ukrainian progress while also pushing grinding assaults around several settlements in the eastern Donetsk region, primarily Bakhmut, a name now synonymous with the most unforgiving combat of the war to date.

Zagorodnyuk said these battles are largely the reason for spiking Russian casualties. "The situation is quite straightforward: Russia is trying to capture these areas, but they cannot," he explained. "Ukrainian artillery works fine.

"They are basically losing hordes of people because they're just throwing them into the battle," Zagorodnyuk added.

Voyger concurred, suggesting a combination of poor-quality newly mobilized recruits, unsophisticated Russian tactics and limited logistics, Moscow's desire for progress at any cost, and potent Western weaponry could help explain the rising Russian casualty figures.

"They have been thrown into this meat-grinder without proper training, without proper equipment, from what we've seen," said Voyger.

"They're sending people as cannon fodder, using this Soviet tactic of burying the enemy with corpses."

Meanwhile, Ukrainian artillery, special forces, and partisan teams are at work preparing the ground for future offensives. In the southern, partially occupied regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, Ukrainian forces are scoring regular hits on troop concentrations and logistics hubs. The same is true in the east, where Ukraine is seeking to weaken the Russian push.

A New Year's Eve HIMARS strike in the occupied city of Makiivka in Donetsk may have killed as many as 400 troops, according to the Ukrainian military. Russia has so far admitted only 89 fatalities, suggesting the soldiers were tracked via cell phones they were using, despite a general ban.

"They are placing them close to the front, so HIMARS are regularly destroying their barracks," Zagorodnyuk said of Russian units brought in to capture eastern areas.

Ukrainian forces are expected to launch fresh counter-offensives in the coming months; either once winter temperatures freeze the ground, enabling mechanized operations, or in the spring. Kyiv has set its sights on full liberation of all occupied territory, and will be looking to isolate Crimea in the south and win back key areas in the east.

Ukrainian officials have warned that Russia will also be looking to restart offensive operations early in 2023, reinforced by hundreds of thousands of mobilized troops.

There is little hope that the situation will improve for the Russians, Voyger said, as more NATO weapons arrive and the Ukrainians aim to launch fresh attacks.

"I wouldn't expect anything less than tens of thousands more, at least, on the Russian side," he said. "The coming months are going to be tough for Russia, for sure."