Russia Struggles To Spin Crimea Failures

The Kremlin is struggling to spin Russia's failures in annexed Crimea as prominent military bloggers clash over setbacks in the Black Sea peninsula, analysis by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) suggests.

A dispute which has emerged among key voices in the Russian information space highlights the Kremlin's sensitivity to reporting at home about setbacks in the annexed peninsula in particular and possibly Ukraine in general, the U.S.-based think tank said in its latest report on the conflict on Wednesday.

Crimea, which was illegally annexed by Russian President Vladimir Putin's forces from Ukraine in 2014, has been hit by a number of explosions in recent weeks amid an ongoing counteroffensive by Kyiv.

The strategically vital Kerch Strait Bridge, which connects Russia with Crimea, has been targeted twice since October 2022, while ammunition depots have been damaged in explosions, and a Russian military airbase was reportedly hit on Wednesday morning.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky pledged last summer to reverse Russia's annexation of Crimea. Extensive fortifications were spotted along Crimea's coast and the Sevastopol naval base ahead of Kyiv's counteroffensive.

Newsweek contacted Russia's Foreign Ministry via email for comment on Thursday.

The ISW said the emerging disputes have "further exposed fault lines within the milblogger community."

It noted that on Wednesday, Russian milblogger Talipov, who has nearly 100,000 subscribers on Telegram, lashed out at other prominent pro-Kremlin online commentators who have criticized how Russia has handled the ongoing war in Ukraine, posting images that purportedly show damage caused by recent attacks in Crimea. The milblogger called them "imbeciles" who support "provocative publications" and the "frantic criticism of the [Russian Ministry of Defense]."

At the same time, there has been a somewhat muted reaction from many prominent milbloggers over strikes in Crimea in contrast to attacks elsewhere, including in Moscow. This includes an apparent Ukrainian strike on the Chonhar Bridge on July 29, which saw the vast majority of Russian milbloggers keeping silent, with some simply reposting images of the aftermath, the ISW said.

The issue of strikes against Crimea is likely a "distinctly neuralgic point in the pro-war Russian information space," the think tank said, assessing that the Russian military command's top brass may have ordered milbloggers to censor themselves about setbacks in the Black Sea peninsula that can be directly blamed on military leadership.

The ISW pointed to the stark contrast in how milbloggers have responded to recent drone strikes on the Russian capital, with many quick to blame the city's Mayor, Sergei Sobyanin, for the strikes "due to his administration's failures to secure Moscow's air space."

"The defense of Russian positions in Crimea, by contrast, is clearly the responsibility of Russian Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov, who is also the overall theater commander in Ukraine," the ISW suggested.

The think tank said the Russian General Staff may fear that milbloggers reporting on strikes in the Black Sea peninsula are "fueling negative perceptions of Gerasimov's competence," as well as possibly fueling panic in Crimea. In contrast, "Russian authorities may feel comfortable letting more local officials such as Sobyanin take the fall for attacks on Moscow and other Russian cities."

Ukraine has said it was behind both attacks on the Kerch Bridge. Ukraine hasn't claimed responsibility for strikes inside Russia. However, Oleksiy Danilov, the secretary of the national security and defense council of Ukraine, said on Thursday that Kyiv has the right to strike on Russian territory with weapons of its own production.

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