Russia Explains Military Activity in Belarus as Ukraine Guards Border

Russia's Foreign Ministry said on Friday that its recent series of military drills with its close ally Belarus, which shares a border with Ukraine, was designed to deter potential opponents "from escalation and provocations."

Kyiv meanwhile continued to guard the border and played down any imminent attacks.

Russia used Belarus as a launchpad for its invasion of Ukraine last February and the October deployment of joint forces to Belarus could signal that President Vladimir Putin is looking to launch a fresh attack from its northern neighbor in the coming months. The two countries will conduct joint drills from January 16 to February 1.

Joint Russian-Belarus drills are "defensive in nature" and aimed at ensuring the security of Belarus and Russia, the director of the Russian Foreign Ministry's Second CIS Department, Alexey Polishchuk, told state-owned Russian news agency TASS.

"They ... are supposed to discourage our potential adversaries from escalation and provocations. We have a full understanding with our Belarusian allies on this issue," he said.

Polishchuk also said that any attempt to attack Belarus was "doomed to failure."

On Thursday, TASS reported that Russia's Defense Ministry told media that Oleg Salyukov, the commander-in-chief of Russia's ground forces, made a working trip to Belarus to speak to commanders in the joint regional group of forces to review military personnel's accommodation and other conditions.

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko confirmed on Tuesday that the regional group of troops had been formed using his military.

However, Kyiv is talking down fears that Belarus might be used as a launchpad for another invasion, or that the country might join the war.

Lieutenant General Serhii Naiev, commander of the joint forces of the armed forces of Ukraine, told a press conference on Thursday that Belarus does not have enough troops for a new ground invasion of Ukraine.

"As of today, the situation on the territory of Belarus does not pose a direct threat of any ground action against Ukraine," he said, adding that Ukraine maintains contact with Western allies, particularly Poland and the United States, on intelligence matters.

Naiev said that Ukraine's troops feel calm and are bolstering their defense capabilities.

Russia's activities in Belarus have been keeping Ukraine on high alert, as equipment belonging to the Russian armed forces has been transported regularly to the country in recent weeks. Tensions rose towards the end of last year as Belarus blamed Ukraine for a downed missile on its border.

Photos from Reuters and other outlets showed Ukrainian troops taking part in exercises this week near the border with Belarus.

Peter Caddick-Adams, director of the Defence & Global Security Institute, told Newsweek he does not believe Belarus will join the war right now.

"Putin and Lukashenko met recently. Belarus is in no way able to take the field itself as the 'special military operation' is incredibly unpopular and intervention against Ukraine would likely provoke a civil war," Caddick-Adams said. "Small numbers of Belarus volunteers are actually fighting for Ukraine. Any internal upset in Belarus would lead to a Russian invasion, on whose support Luka already relies."

"I think the Russian deployment is to draw off Kyiv's reserves, and ensure there is always a substantial force watching the north, which cannot fight elsewhere. Thus, Moscow 'fixes' a significant portion of Kyiv's combat power without actually commiting itself to battle," he added.

The historian said that Russia can use the Belarus garrison to train conscripts and prepare them for deployment elsewhere.

"Ukraine would be reluctant to attack Russian bases in Belarus with drones, cruise missiles, etc., at the risk of provoking Minsk.

"It's a win-win for Putin, and gives him a theatre strategic reserve, only providing the Belarus force is not actually used."

Reuters also reported that the terrain close to the border would make a fresh assault from Belarus difficult. Burst river banks, thick mud and waterlogged fields could be seen for miles around Ukraine's northwest border with Belarus on Thursday. Reuters also reported that the Ukrainian military was recruiting local people willing to defend their communities.

Serhiy Khominskyi, spokesman for the region's Volyn territorial defense brigade, said beavers are helping make the terrain unpassable.

"When they build their dams normally people destroy them, but they didn't this year because of the war, so now there is water everywhere," he said.

Update 1/13/23, 11.13 a.m. ET: This article was updated with comments from a military analyst.