Russia Firing Commanders to Deflect Blame From Leadership: U.K.

Russia is firing military commanders to deflect blame for failures in Ukraine from the country's leadership, according to British defense officials.

The latest intelligence update from the U.K.'s Ministry of Defense (MOD) noted that Colonel General Alexander Lapin had reportedly been fired from his role as commander of Russia's Central Military District in late October.

Major General Alexander Linkov was reportedly appointed acting commander on Thursday, the ministry said in the update on Sunday.

It said that Lapin had been "widely criticized for poor performance on the battlefield" by Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov and Putin ally Yevgeny Prigozhin, the founder of the notorious Wagner Group, a mercenary outfit fighting on Russia's side in Ukraine. Both blamed Lapin for the loss of Lyman, a key supply hub in eastern Ukraine.

The news follows a series of dismissals of senior Russian military commanders since Russia invaded Ukraine in late February. Commanders of the Eastern, Southern, and Western Military Districts were replaced earlier this year, the British MOD said.

"These dismissals represent a pattern of blame against senior Russian military commanders for failures to achieve Russian objectives on the battlefield," it added. "This is in part likely an attempt to insulate and deflect blame from Russian senior leadership at home."

Lapin's removal has not been officially confirmed by Russia's defense ministry.

Vlad Mykhnenko, an expert in the post-communist transformation of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union at the University of Oxford, told Newsweek that "this is fast becoming a pattern" with each major Russian army failure on the front line,.

He said: "Either a humiliating retreat or a devastatingly costly attack causes an uproar on social media, followed by the state-controlled TV propaganda, with the supporters of the Russian invasion... screaming for blood of the offending general and, increasingly, the Ministry of Defence and the General Staff."

The same cycle is repeating itself after Russia's failure to capture Pavlivka, a village in the Donetsk region, Mykhnenko said.

"The Russians lost many hundreds of troops and a lot of armor, but failed to achieve any of the attack's objectives," he said. "As the news from Pavlivka began to emerge, the pro-war social media channels, including Prigozhin and Kadyrov's internet bots, started a new campaign calling for severe punishments to be dished out against the responsible generals in the Ministry of Defence and the General Staff. I would not be surprised to see another proverbial head to roll in Moscow."

But the obvious problem with the Kremlin's strategy is that "they are going to run out of generals—scapegoats— as many more failures and retreats from Ukraine awaits," Mykhnenko said.

"Moreover, the senior military leaders and Army cadre generals at large will become increasingly demoralized and frustrated with social media and TV pundit attacks and tacit Putin's approval of the criticism. How the Russian Army generals would react is anyone's guess."

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a U.S.-based think tank, wrote in an assessment on Thursday that Russia media outlets are continuing to publish "confused" reports about Lapin's dismissal and replacement.

It noted that the Central Military District's press service had told one outlet that Linkov would temporarily replace Lapin as commander, while unnamed Russian Ministry of Defense sources told other outlets that Lieutenant-General Andrey Mordvichev would command "central" forces while Lapin is on a three-week medical leave.

Meanwhile, milbloggers with ties to Russian state media also recently claimed Mordvichev would also command the CMD.

"Such incoherent announcements by Russian MoD officials about the possible replacement of the second most-senior Russian commander in Ukraine is highly unusual for a professional military during a critical period of a war," the ISW wrote.

In an earlier assessment on October 29, the ISW said conflicting reports about Lapin "may indicate the Kremlin is struggling to control the narrative regarding its higher military command."

"The increasing transparency within the Russian information space—spearheaded by the siloviki Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov and Wagner Group financier Yevgeniy Prigozhin, and the pro-war community—is likely making it more challenging for the Kremlin to conceal and explain away any command changes in public," the ISW wrote.

"Kadyrov and Prigozhin both have publicly attacked Lapin on several occasions, leading some milbloggers to point out that other Russian district commanders did not receive any criticism despite their own failings (and firings)."

Newsweek has contacted Russia's defense ministry for comment.

Update 11/6/22, 11:15 a.m. ET: This article has been updated with comments from Vlad Mykhnenko.