Russia Just Gave Another Hint That Second Draft Is Coming

Russia appears to be hinting that another mobilization round might be coming in an effort by the Kremlin to meet its war demands in Ukraine.

State Duma Deputy Viktor Sobolev announced on Friday that Russian reservists who are 30 and older and have no military experience will be trained after adopting a law that would change the call-up age for conscripts, Russian news agency URA.RU reported.

"Those who are over 30 years old will be called up for training in order to learn a military specialty to prevent them being cannon fodder," the agency quoted Sobolev as saying.

However, Andrei Kartapalov, head of the Duma's Defense Committee, on Friday denied that Russian reservists will be required to undergo military training, the independent Amsterdam-based Moscow Times reported, citing the Telegram channel Baza.

It remains unclear whether Russia is actually considering another round of mobilization, but Russian President Vladimir Putin in December supported a proposal by the defense ministry to gradually raise the call-up age for conscripts from 18 to 21 and the upper limit from 27 to 30, according to Russian news agency TASS.

The Russian Defense Ministry also suggested expanding the size of the standing army to 1.5 million people, according to the Moscow Times.

Igor Lukes, a Boston University professor focusing on Eastern European politics and contemporary Russia, told Newsweek on Friday that he doesn't see how Russia can continue its war in Ukraine without additional mobilization.

"The mounting losses together with evidence that the recruits can effectively help stabilize the front are likely to inspire the Kremlin to order another round of bringing fresh troops into battle," he said.

Ukraine claims that Moscow's mobilization attempts are not over. Its military intelligence stated that Russia's Federal Security Service appeared to have banned all potential conscripts from leaving the country since Monday, the Kyiv Independent reported. However, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov denied the report, according to Russian state news agency RIA Novosti.

Last weekend, Ukrainian military intelligence said that Russia is planning to mobilize 500,000 conscripts to fight in the war, which began with the Russian invasion last February 24.

"If Russia now mobilizes, it may have some 300,000 or half a million troops ready for a spring offensive," Lukes said. "The Ukrainians worry that Putin's goal is a two-million army. Even poorly led and equipped, it would represent a powerful force."

Alexander Lanoszka, an Assistant Professor of International Relations at the University of Waterloo, also predicted that Russia might be preparing for a new offensive in the Spring and therefore might be considering additional mobilization.

"Russia clearly has been using mobilized forces to undertake offensives, as what we have seen along the Bakhmut-Soledar axis. The operational strategy there is to overwhelm Ukrainian defences with human wave attacks and then use more experienced personnel to continue the offensive," he told Newsweek on Friday.

Lanoszka continued: "It is possible that Russia is holding many mobilized forces in reserve for a new offensive in the spring. The problem for Russia is that many of these new forces are not well trained, let alone well equipped and resourced. They can still inflict much harm, to be sure, but their ability to achieve meaningful operational success over the long term is questionable."

Putin said in October that mobilization efforts were over after he initially announced "partial mobilization" of 300,000 conscripts in September, but he didn't sign a decree to officially end the efforts.

In December, Putin again denied a new wave of mobilization, saying he found it unnecessary to do so, according to the Kyiv Independent.

Despite Putin's claims, the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces said in November that Russia was mobilizing conscripts in occupied Simferopol.

Meanwhile, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in November that Russian authorities "never fully halted mobilization efforts" and that a limited number of mobilized recruits were still being forced to undergo military training at the same time that conscripts are going through their own training cycle.

"This will likely lead to even lower-quality training for both mobilized recruits and conscripts as they compete for insufficient training capacity," the ISW said.

Newsweek reached out to the Russian Defense Ministry for comment.

Update [13/1/2023] 5:00 p.m. ET: the story has been updated to include comments by Alexander Lanoszka and Igor Lukes.