Russia's Kamikaze Drones Could Tilt War Back in Putin's Favor

Russia will try to capitalize on Ukraine's struggle to figure out how to defend itself from drone attacks, a military expert has warned.

Vladimir Putin's forces have reportedly used "kamikaze" drones to hit civilian targets, including an apartment block in Kyiv on Monday which killed at least four. Attacks on Tuesday in other cities have left Ukraine scrambling to come up with an effective response to the unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), which are cheaper alternatives to cruise missiles and are helping Russia make up for its dwindling munition supplies.

"The Russians have a small window of opportunity because they managed to use the tactical initiative by using those drones. Nobody was expecting them," Marina Miron, a research fellow from the Defense Studies Department at King's College London (KCL), told Newsweek. "Nobody knows how to counter them properly."

Russia is believed to have first used the Iranian-made Shahed-136 drone on September 13 near the city of Kupyansk in the Kharkiv region. Debris from the drones has been found in wreckage in other cities, such as Odesa and Mykolaiv.

Also known as Geranium-2, the drone has an eight-foot wingspan and carries explosives in a warhead on its nose. Difficult to detect on radar, it can loiter over a target until instructed to attack.

"Russians can just shoot and scoot because you can mount the launch platform on the back of the truck and then not give away your firing position," Miron said. "The media is filled with images of destruction of cities and civilian suffering. So, obviously, in the information spaces, drones are generating a very strong psychological effect."

Soon after the start of the war, there had been a push from influential military bloggers for Russia to close the capabilities gap with Ukraine in terms of drone capabilities. International sanctions on Moscow have also impacted its ability to source weapons and components.

Miron said as well as the Shahed 136, Iran has given Russia Shahed 129s and Shahed 191s. It has also supplied the Mohajer-6 drone which can carry four PGMs (precision-guided missiles). Russia also uses the smaller reconnaissance Orlan-10s, which have been shot down in large numbers by Ukraine.

The Shahed-136 costs a relatively thrifty $20,000, compared with the $2m price tag of a military drone such as a single Turkish-built Bayraktar TB2, which has delivered success for Ukraine. The Iranian drone's payload is 88 pounds of explosives, over three times more than a typical 155mm M795 artillery round, according to U.S. military analyst Brett Friedman.

Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky said that Russia had ordered 2,400 Shahed drones from Iran, but he did not specify which types and when they would be delivered.

Miron says the numbers in play are unclear because official accounts coming from both Russia and Iran don't indicate any transaction "that would suggest Russia had ever purchased those drones."

Ukrainian armed forces have used anti-air missiles and electronic jamming devices to try to down the drones. Earlier this month, Ukraine said it had been intercepting about 60 percent of them. But they fly low and there is power in numbers if waves of them are sent in.

"With these UAVs, they are flying low enough and slow enough that Ukraine will try to shoot these with small arms. As they're trying to do that, they're using a massive amount of ammunition just to try to hit one of these," Austin Warnick, an analyst at risk intelligence firm Flashpoint told Newsweek.

"Not only are these supplementing Russia's depleted arsenal but they're also having a pretty significant impact on Ukraine's arsenal as well," he said. "They are causing Ukraine to dig in and use their resources."

Warnick said Iranian drones were initially used by Russia to soften Ukrainian forces' counteroffensive by hitting heavy armored targets and artillery sites. Now they were able to deliver a psychological blow to Ukraine and keep Russia in the war.

After being buoyed by the success of its counteroffensive that drove back Russian troops on the ground, Kyiv's forces face the growing threat of drones raining down from the air.

"What is actually needed are high energy defense systems" which have "lasers and high energy microwaves," said Warnick. "These are types of weapon systems that the U.S. has at their disposal and those are effective against these types of UAVs."

"I don't necessarily think it's going to turn the tide a whole lot, but this will allow Russia to stay in the fight a little bit longer to save their own reserves," he added.