Russian Troops Caught Between Retreat Over Dnieper or Risk Being Cut Off

Russian commanders are under pressure to stay and defend part of the Dnieper river in the Kherson region which is essential to resupplying their troops, according to British defense officials.

The U.K. Ministry of Defense said on Thursday Ukrainian units were advancing south and had pushed the front line forward by around 12 miles during a new phase of offensive operations in Kherson which started on October 2.

They had made gains along the east bank of the Inhulets tributary and west bank of the Dnieper River but were not yet threatening the main Russian defensive positions.

"Russian forces have typically broken contact and withdrawn," the defense officials said, concluding that Russian commanders considered the Nova Kakhovka sector "as one of their most pressing concerns."

As well as having a power station and dam, Nova Kakhovka is the location of the start of the North Crimean Canal that takes fresh water to the peninsula Russia illegally annexed in 2014. Western officials said this week that taking control of such a nexus would be a significant coup for Ukraine, The Guardian reported.

The damaged river crossing over the Dnieper in this area is one of the few routes available for Russia to resupply their forces, the U.K. ministry said.

This meant that Russia faces the "dilemma" of either defending the west bank of the Dnieper or withdrawing its combat forces across the river to help them defend the rest of Kherson province. However "the political imperative will be to remain and defend."

Russia had committed most of its "severely undermanned airborne forces," the VDV, to defending Kherson, which meant that it lacked extra high quality rapidly deployable forces to stabilize the front.

"It likely aims to deploy mobilized reservists to the sector," the British ministry added in its daily assessment which emphasizes Russian losses and Ukrainian successes. Newsweek has contacted the Russian defense ministry for comment.

On Tuesday, Ukrainian forces liberated the village of Davydiv Brid in the Kherson region, with a video posted by the Kyiv's Defense Ministry of its 35th Marine Brigade hoisting a Ukrainian flag above the key village. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said a number of other occupied villages in the region had also been recaptured.

Pro-war Telegram channel Starshe Eddy said on Tuesday that Russia was facing an "obvious operational crisis" in the south. "Our mistakes are obvious, and now, in order to correct them, the southern command must prepare the cities, Berislav, Novaya Kakhovka, and, above all, Kherson for defense."

However, the southeastern city of Zaporizhzhia was hit by Russian missiles early Thursday morning, killing two people, regional Governor Oleksandr Starukh wrote on the Telegram messaging app. The city is the location of a nuclear power plant and hostilities nearby have sparked concern of a nuclear disaster.

Source: Institute for the Study of War and AEI's Critical Threats Project.