Russia Could Suffer 'Significant Losses' in Bid to Take Avdiivka Plant: UK

Britain's Defense Ministry says Russia is likely to suffer "significant losses" if it tries to take Ukraine's Avdiivka chemical plant.

In a daily intelligence update on X (formerly Twitter), the ministry said Russia is attempting a "pincer movement" against Avdiivka, a town on the edge of the eastern Donbas region. "Over the last week, Russian forces have continued attacks towards outlying villages of the contested town of Avdiivka," the ministry said.

Avdiivka is a strategically significant target for Russia in eastern Ukraine and is seen as a gateway between Ukraine and Russian-held territories on the edge of the Donbas. It is about 12 miles from the city of Dontesk.

"Avdiivka has been fought over for nearly a decade and holds political importance to Russia given its proximity to Donetsk city," the U.K. ministry's update said. Russian forces are likely to be close to Avdiivka's coke and chemical plant, which is a "key tactical position to the north of the town."

The post continued: "The plant dominates the main road into Avdiivka and, if Russian forces were to secure it, resupplying the town would become increasingly difficult for Ukraine. However, the industrial facility provides Ukraine with a localised defensive advantage and Russian forces will probably suffer significant personnel losses if they attempt to assault the facility."

General Oleksandr Tarnavskiy, who is leading the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the south, said Ukrainian soldiers "are firmly holding the defense in the direction of Avdiivka," according to a report by Irish broadcaster RTÉ.

Newsweek has contacted the Russian Ministry of Defense for comment via email.

Russia has already suffered losses in Avdiivka. Video filmed by Ukraine's 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade, which is stationed in the area, was posted by Tarnavskiy on Facebook. The clip shows destroyed, smoking Russian vehicles in fields near Avdiivka, along with what appear to be dead Russian soldiers.

The fighting over Avdiivka has gone on since mid-October, when Russia launched its major offensive effort in the area. In a previous update at the end of October, the British Ministry of Defense estimated that eight brigades had been committed by Moscow to secure the area. It also said these brigades were "likely to have suffered some of Russia's highest casualty rates of 2023 so far."

The 47th Brigade has said that around 7,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded and that Russian forces in the area have been "left without" 100 tanks and 250 other armored vehicles in the past three weeks.

"Russian occupiers are unable to surround Avdiivka thanks to the actions of our defenders," the brigade said in an update on Telegram.

On October 26, U.S. National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said that morale is low in units fighting around Avdiivka, leading to large losses.

"We have information that the Russian military has been actually executing soldiers who are refusing to follow orders," he told reporters. "We also have information that Russian commanders are threatening to execute entire units if they seek to retreat from Ukrainian artillery fire."

In a recent update on the situation in Avdiivka, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said: "Russia is already losing soldiers and equipment near Avdiivka faster and on a larger scale than, for example, near Bakhmut. It is extremely difficult to withstand this onslaught.

"And each of our warriors holding the positions, each of our warriors performing combat missions there deserves our utmost gratitude. They are true heroes," Zelensky said.