Russia Lost 100,000 Soldiers in Four Months amid Battle of Bakhmut: U.S.

The Russian military has lost more than 100,000 soldiers to death or injury in Ukraine over the last four months, according to new estimates from U.S. officials.

Some of the most intense fighting during that time has taken place in Bakhmut, a city in the eastern Ukrainian region of Donetsk. Russian forces have reportedly been pouring massive amounts of military resources into prying the city away from Ukraine, which still maintains slim control of the area.

While some experts have said that securing Bakhmut would provide Russia with key supply lines and clear the way to take other cities, others have questioned its strategic value compared to the effort being expended to take it.

On Monday, White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby provided a striking new estimate for how many personnel Russia had lost in recent months. Kirby said that Russian forces had incurred over 100,000 casualties since December, including around 20,000 deaths. Later on Monday, NSC deputy spokesman Sean Savett clarified that the figures accounted for Russia's losses in the whole of Ukraine, not just in Bakhmut.

Of those dead fighters, a considerable amount were either Wagner Group mercenaries or convicts conscripted from prison. The numbers were based on newly declassified U.S. intelligence reports, though Kirby did not elaborate on how the numbers were derived.

This past November, General Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, estimated that Russian forces had suffered 100,000 casualties across the first eight months of the invasion. These new estimates from Kirby suggest a significant acceleration of losses for Russia in Ukraine.

"While the trajectory of the fighting is still developing," Kirby said, according to journalist Laura Rozen. "I think there are a few things that remain clear. First, Russia's attempted offensive in the Donbas largely through that has failed. Last December, Russia initiated broad operations across multiple lines...Most of these efforts have stalled and failed. Russia has been unable to seize a real strategically significant territory."

Kirby added that most of the Wagner troops in Bakhmut were "thrown into combat and without sufficient combat or combat training, combat leadership, or any sense of organizational command and control."

Despite these heavy losses, some experts have suggested that Russian President Vladimir Putin will not be deterred from continuing the conflict. In January, former Department of Defense (DOD) Secretary Robert Gates said that mass expenditure of military resources was part of a typical Russian military strategy to try and overwhelm Ukraine.

"Putin believes it's his destiny to recreate the Russian Empire," Gates said during an appearance on Meet the Press. "And as my old mentor, Zbig Brzezinski, used to say, 'Without Ukraine, there can be no Russian Empire.' So he is obsessed with retaking Ukraine, he will hang in there...And he's doing what Russian armies have always done, and that is sending large numbers of relatively poorly equipped, poorly trained conscripts to the frontlines, in the belief that mass will overcome."

In an email statement to Newsweek, European defense expert Rajan Menon of the Defense Priorities group said that Russian President Vladimir Putin is pushing for a victory in Bakhmut by May 9, a day of celebration in Russia, so he can tout some sort of accomplishment in the face of brutal casualties.

"The Russians are doing all they can to take the town of Bakhmut by May 9, when victory over Germany in World War II is celebrated each year amidst great fanfare and patriotic outpouring," Menon said. "If Russia—the regular army plus the Wagner Group, both at each other's throats, politically speaking—succeed, Putin can, as it were, parade that achievement as a victory in a winter offensive that has yielded no victories, despite Russia overwhelming advantage in soldiers and firepower, but exacted a steep toll in casualties."

He continued: "The Ukrainians are determined, despite suffering substantial losses of their own, to defend Bakhmut and leave him with no success to brandish come May 9. The Ukrainians have been pushed back from much of Bakhmut, which the Russians have been assaulting since last fall, but are fighting on, and still retain control of the two key supply roads. At this point, it's touch and go."

Update, 05/02/2023, 8:30 a.m. ET: This article and its headline were updated following a clarification from NSC deputy spokesman Sean Savett that the casualty figures accounted for Russia's losses in the whole of Ukraine, not just in Bakhmut.

Update, 05/01/2023, 5:58 p.m. ET: This article was updated to add comment from Rajan Menon.