Russian Conscripts 'Human Speed Bumps' for Advancing Ukrainians: Ex-General

Russian President Vladimir Putin's newly mobilized recruits are likely to provide "only human speed bumps" for the Armed Forces of Ukraine amid the ongoing southern counteroffensive, a retired Australian general said Wednesday.

"The Russian Army do not appear to have an answer to what the Ukrainians are doing to them," tweeted Mick Ryan, a defense analyst and retired Australian general, referring to an offensive by Ukraine's army that has forced Russia to retreat from several positions in the Kherson region.

The counteroffensive began in early September and has gained momentum in recent days. The recent successes follow Kyiv swiftly recapturing swathes of territory in the northeastern Kharkiv region this month.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Tuesday that the Ukrainian military liberated eight more settlements in the Kherson region that had been occupied by Russian troops—Lyubimovka, Kreshchenovka, Zolotaya Balka, Belyaevka, Ukrainka, Bolshaya, Malaya Aleksandrovka, and Davydov Brod.

Russia, meanwhile, is counting on the arrival of some of the 300,000 Russians whose mobilization was recently ordered by Putin to turn around its military fortunes in Ukraine.

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said on Tuesday that 200,000 had been enlisted into the army since Putin's call for 300,000 reservists and ex-military personnel with "certain military specialties and relevant experience."

Ryan suggested in a Twitter thread that the incoming mobilized troops are unlikely to make a difference in the Ukraine war, which began on February 24.

"We are seeing cascading failures which are likely to continue for a while yet," Ryan wrote. "The injection of mobilised troops is likely to provide only human speed bumps for the Ukrainians."

Ryan said Russia has not seen "such a terrible series of reverses on the battlefield" since the initial part of Operation Barbarossa in World War II.

"And with large numbers of troops stuck west of the Dnipro, the days ahead could get much worse for them yet," he added.

The former general assessed that Ukraine owes its current successes on the battlefield to both dedicated and situational reserves that it had likely allocated for planned offensives, as well as a skill for exploiting opportunities.

"Creating these required a good appreciation of risk, deception, operational security and logistic stockpiling," he wrote.

"The Ukrainians have fought a superior recon battle. A senior military officer, during our Kyiv visit, confirmed the Russians were poor at tactical recon," he added. "This is an essential part of preventing surprise and recognizing enemy weaknesses to exploit."

Ryan also credited the courage of Ukrainians in close combat and the "lack of purpose" among Russian soldiers as being central to Ukraine's success in recapturing so much of its territory in the past several weeks.

In March, Kherson became the first major city to be seized by Putin's troops.

Joel Hickman, the deputy director of the Transatlantic Defense and Security program at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), told Newsweek that he also doesn't believe the mobilization of 300,000 recruits will have a strategic impact on the outcome of the Ukraine war.

Hickman said that even when the 300,000 target is reached, at the expense of many more people fleeing Russia to avoid being conscripted, these men will not be recently trained, combat-ready or highly motivated —"three essential attributes that Ukrainian forces have in abundance."

"We've seen how Russia has failed to provide sufficient command and control and logistics support for its forces currently in Ukraine; the additional 300,000 could therefore put enormous strain on their ability to sustain these forces for a prolonged period of time. It will also take time to integrate them into existing Russian formations," Hickman said.

Hickman noted that as Ukraine is rapidly retaking territory in the east and south and as its troops continue to target Russian re-supply lines, Russia will have a very difficult time absorbing the additional forces into its existing command and control structures.

"It could get very messy for them," he added.

Kirill Stremousov, deputy head of the Russian-appointed military-civilian regional administration in Kherson, told RIA Novosti on Wednesday that the Russian army is preparing to strike back at Ukrainian troops in the region.

Newsweek has contacted Russia's foreign ministry and Ryan for additional comment.

Update 10/5/22, 10:25 AM ET: This story has been updated with commentary from Joel Hickman.