Ukraine Drone Strikes on Russia Have Three Key Objectives

Drone strikes in the heart of Russia's capital have shown Ukraine to be exacting a psychological toll on Russia, but also pursuing shrewd military objectives as the conflict drags on.

On Tuesday, Moscow blamed Kyiv for a second round of drone strikes in the capital within three days, labeling it as a "terrorist attack."

In the attack, a drone damaged a high-rise building in the Moscow City financial district that was also hit in the unmanned vehicle strikes on Sunday. The building is home to several of Russia's government ministries.

Skirting around claiming responsibility for the attack, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Sunday that "gradually, the war is returning to the territory of Russia." In later comments from Ukraine's defense intelligence agency, a spokesperson said Moscow's residents should "understand" that drones hitting Russian territory "are a direct consequence of the terrible bloody criminal war their government has unleashed."

A clear symbolic message, the strikes may also reveal strategic objectives, experts have told Newsweek, with no end to the conflict in sight and drone strikes likely to continue hitting both Russian targets and the headlines.

Mind Games on Russian Soil

"There will be a deliberate psychological effect being sought on Russian leadership, and potentially the Russian population," Justin Bronk, a senior research fellow for airpower and technology at the London-based Royal United Services Institute think tank, told Newsweek.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has stuck to his rhetoric of citing the Kremlin's actions in Ukraine as a "special military operation," rather than conceding that Russia is a country at war, noted weapons and technology expert, David Hambling.

Strikes on the Russian capital will make Muscovites increasingly sense they are at war, he told Newsweek, meaning they will "demand to know why they are not being defended."

Russian state media have also reported that residents working in the financial district are now staying home, rather than venturing into the area, added Samuel Bendett, a research analyst with the Center for Naval Analyses think tank.

"The purpose might have been a symbolic attack to create a psychological effect not only on the leadership but also on the population, taking the war to Russia's capital," Marina Miron, a post-doctoral researcher at the Department of War Studies at King's College London, told Newsweek.

The intention behind hitting the tower twice has not been quite clear. Non-residential targets like the Moscow City complex deviate from Ukraine's pattern of targeting military facilities or bases, suggesting to some experts that Russia's jamming and defenses stopped the drone from hitting its target.

However, the consecutive hits on the IQ tower, as the building is known, are a "very clever psychological statement," suggested U.K.-based drone expert Steve Wright.

It shows Ukraine's "adaptability and resourcefulness is increasing in a way the Russians cannot hope to match, and at the same time causing minimal risk of civilian casualties," he told Newsweek.

"No one is expecting the Russians to be bombed into submission by drone attacks on Moscow, but it is a clear message to the population that the war is not going to go away, and a clever way of keeping people aware and dissatisfied with it," Wright said.

Displaying New Power and Technology

The drone strikes not only pack a psychological punch, but they also show off to Russia—and the world—just how quickly Ukraine is producing new, effective drone technology.

"The Moscow attacks have been a spectacular feat of arms," Wright said. "It has shown that the attackers have been able to build, test, and deploy these machines in waves of tens, which is another feat of logistics and organization."

"These attacks show that there is an exploitable weakness in Moscow's air defenses, showcasing Ukraine's capabilities," Miron said,adding it may be a way of distracting attention from the slow pace of Ukraine's counteroffensive.

Experts have argued throughout the war that, as this technology develops, drones attacking in swarms will pose a far larger threat to overwhelmed air defenses. But true swarm attacks have not yet been seen among forces in Ukraine.

Although these drones do not carry a large warhead, there was some "serious damage" on the Moscow City area, Bendett said. But "even a small amount of explosive can have a big effect in the right place," Hambling said.

"Knowing that a drone can hit any given building with a hundred pounds of explosive will force Russia to take extensive measures to protect military and government facilities," he added.

Experts have suggested that even one of these drones breaching Russian air defenses is quite the achievement for those orchestrating the attacks.

But it remains to be seen just how resistant these drones, now named "Beaver" unmanned aerial vehicles, are to Russian jamming and electronic warfare. Yet these strikes indicate Ukraine is in the beginning phases of developing these types of weapons, and will only improve the technology after these attacks.

"Ukraine is only just starting to produce significant numbers of long-range attack drones and is doubtless learning a lot from these first strikes," Hambling said.

Ukraine could then look to target Russian power supplies and telecommunications networks, he said, adding: "A better organized and coordinated attack on Moscow on a larger scale might achieve more significant results."

Going After Military Targets?

Questions remain over whether the drone strikes intended to hit certain targets, or whether they veered away from their original destination due to Russian defenses.

Striking the same building twice shows "targeting is fairly exact," Hambling said, and as a government ministry base, it could have some value as a specific target.

If Russia pulled back some of its air defense systems from Ukraine to protect the capital this would "of course be a great success" for Kyiv, Hambling said.

Yet Russia's war effort is fed by bases, military facilities and worthwhile military targets across the country, Bendett said. "Why are these locations not targeted with similar intensity as Moscow?" he added.

Ukraine has repeatedly used Western-supplied missiles to target Russian ammunition bases or weapons depots. But "kamikaze" drones, although not fulfilling exactly the same function, are far cheaper to produce and can still pack a punch against a target.

"The entire drone assault on Moscow to date has probably cost less than a single Russian Zircon hypersonic missile, but has echoed around the world," Hambling said.

Update 08/03/23 at 10:53 a.m. ET: This article was updated with comment from Marina Miron.