Russia Can't Kill West's Ukraine Convoys, Risks NATO Escalation by Trying

Russia and NATO are edging closer to direct confrontation in Ukraine, where Moscow's aggression and threats have failed to stem the rapid flow eastward of Western weapons to President Volodymyr Zelensky and his vaunted defenders.

These weapons are being delivered in a variety of ways, the logistical details closely-kept secrets for fear of interception and destruction by the Russians. Sunday's devastating attack on the Yavoriv military base—which previously hosted U.S. and NATO troops—close to the Polish border was a clear statement of intent from Moscow.

Russia cannot feasibly stop all Western weapons deliveries. But the more it strikes the transport and supply depots used to distribute them, the higher the risk of inflicting NATO casualties becomes. NATO itself is not arranging weapons supplies, all are being sent bilaterally by member states with no central coordination from Brussels.

"The strike on Yavoriv was, as I read it, intended as a renewed message that Russia is willing to go after all of Ukraine," German member of the European Parliament Reinhard Butikofer told Newsweek. "That should not surprise us and our reaction should be additional support for Zelensky's government."

Butikofer—a member of the European Green Party and a longtime critic of President Vladimir Putin—said he believes "the Russians are willing to target European and U.S. supply convoys on Ukrainian territory,"

"NATO has on the other hand been very clear that it will defend every inch of NATO territory," he said. "Considering how poorly Putin's troops are faring in Ukraine, I am not sure he will at the moment be willing to risk additional problems by stepping beyond NATO's red line."

Ukraine is criticizing NATO for not doing enough, a complaint echoed by the alliance's Russoskeptic eastern members. Moscow, on the other hand, protests that NATO is doing too much.

Russian aggression has rejuvenated the 72-year-old alliance, which is now operating in a gray zone between war and peace.

A proposal to provide fighter jets to Ukraine fell flat, and NATO is still refusing to entertain the idea of a "no-fly zone" over the country, which would entail destroying Russian aircraft and anti-aircraft systems.

There is no appetite within NATO for a direct contest with Russia that could quickly escalate out of control.

But Russia might escalate alone, or by mistake. Putin has already ordered his nuclear forces onto high alert, Russian officials have described NATO weapons supply convoys as "legitimate targets," and one of Moscow's drones reportedly violated Polish airspace this week before being shot down by the Ukrainians.

Sunday's attack on Yavoriv also reportedly killed an unknown number of foreign fighters being trained for combat within the new International Brigade.

NATO and Ukrainian sources previously told Newsweek that Russia will not be deterred by the risk of NATO casualties, even prime ministers and foreign ministers visiting under-fire Kyiv.

But there is also the danger that Russian strikes will go awry, hitting unintended Western targets and even territory. One source close to Zelensky's government, who did not wish to be named, told Newsweek the Russian weapons are not precise.

A NATO diplomatic official—who spoke to Newsweek on the condition of anonymity—concurred, explaining that the Russians will not be able to hit moving convoys and will prefer to target static locations like the base at Yavoriv.

Mathieu Boulegue, a research fellow at the U.K.'s Chatham House think tank, told journalists at a Tuesday briefing that Russian weapons "leave a wide margin of error...bombs don't fall exactly what they should."

For all Russia's threats, Moscow can't stop the West arming Ukraine. Anti-tank and anti-aircraft shoulder-launched weapons are inflicting significant casualties on the invaders, enough that Russian officials have complained publicly.

The Western supply is a lifeline to embattled Ukrainian defenders, who—despite their fierce resistance and Russia's many mistakes—are being forced to give ground.

The source close to Zelensky's government told Newsweek Kyiv remains confident that Western weapons will successfully enter Ukraine and reach fighting troops, regardless of attempted Russian interceptions and advances.

The NATO diplomatic official explained: "There are many crossings all along the border, so stopping the flow is quite impossible." Any attack on NATO nations related to weapon supplies would prompt an immediate response, the official added.

There are discussions ongoing about augmenting Ukraine's own anti-air network, most likely with Russian-made S-300 systems donated by NATO members Greece, Bulgaria, and Slovakia. Ukraine already operates the S-300, so could quickly integrate donations into its defensive umbrella.

Indeed, the public furor over the MiG-29 fighter jets appears to have masked more serious and substantive discussions about the S-300 and other weapon systems.

President Joe Biden is reportedly considering sending "Switchblade" loitering drones to Ukraine, according to two congressional officials who spoke with NBC News.

Butikofer echoed the Pentagon's assessment that Ukraine still has a significant number of fixed-wing aircraft at its disposal, suggesting the jet debate was misguided.

"The Ukrainian air force seems to have quite a relevant number of their own fighter jets still at their disposal without using them much," Butikofer said.

"Whether providing additional fighter jets is the most pressing issue under those circumstances, can indeed be questioned.

"It has on the other hand been decided to provide Ukraine with air defense systems to protect themselves against Russian escalation. Which defense systems in particular should be employed is in my assessment not a political issue."