Russia Prepares to Declare 'Victory Over NATO': Ukraine Intelligence

Russian propagandists have reportedly been instructed to promote the idea of the "victory of Russia over NATO" ahead of the third anniversary of the war with Ukraine, according to the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine's Ministry of Defense (GUR).

Newsweek reached out to the Russian Foreign Affairs Ministry for comment via email outside normal business hours.

Why It Matters

Russia's renewed efforts to change the narrative surrounding the war and push for its ending come after the U.S. and Russia met for peace talks in Saudi Arabia without Ukraine this week.

In an exchange with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, U.S. President Donald Trump called him a "dictator without elections," which many on social media have alleged is "repeating Putin's propaganda."

What To Know

The Kremlin has reportedly told "special services of the state" to ramp up efforts to change the narratives regarding the Russia-Ukraine war and Moscow's success over the past three years. Propagandists are allegedly planning to announce Russia's "victory" on February 24, the third anniversary of the invasion, and promote narratives in an effort to incite disbelief in Ukrainian society and discredit Kyiv as a partner to pro-Ukraine NATO allies, whom they are calling "enemies of peace."

Russian propagandists have been told to promote several narratives, with some focused on peace negotiations and some on the activity at the frontlines. The narratives relating to peace negotiations include: "The West has betrayed Ukraine," "The opinion of Europeans and Ukrainians does not concern either Moscow or Washington" and "The U.S. and Russia agreed on everything behind Ukraine's back."

Other narratives condemn the Ukrainian government and its relations with allies, as well as activity at the frontlines. These narratives include: "The Ukrainian government is illegitimate," "The Ukrainian army is losing at the front" and "Corrupt people are stealing billions of dollars of American aid from Ukraine."

Ukraine's GUR has alleged that one of the Kremlin's key goals is "to cover the status of an aggressor and war criminal isolated from the civilized world with a cloak-coat, supposedly ready for a peaceful settlement, of the 'constructive side of the conflict.'"

Russia's use of propaganda to change the narrative surrounding the war with Ukraine has increased since 2022, as the outlet NewsGuard has identified and debunked 302 false claims relating to the war, nearly all originating as Russian propaganda.

The outlet also noted that in the three years of war, Russian disinformation operatives have used artificial intelligence (AI), which has multiplied the amount of Russian propaganda being circulated and increased the persuasiveness of the campaigns.

What People Are Saying

WarTranslated, run by an Estonian military blogger, on X, formerly Twitter: "The Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine reports that Russian propagandists have received instructions to promote 'victorious' narratives ahead of the anniversary of the invasion. The Kremlin is preparing to announce a 'victory' on February 24, 2025, attempting to mask its status as an aggressor."

Wojciech Kość, a journalist for Politico, on X: "'Russia wants to declare 'victory' on Feb. 24, Ukrainian intel says,' I'm reading. It would be funny if not for the fact that Trump might think it's for real."

What Happens Next

European powers will likely reiterate their support for Ukraine if Russia declares "victory," as Western leaders voiced support for Zelensky after Trump referred to him as a "dictator."