Why Putin Remains Paranoid

Vladimir Putin's internal security forces may be beefed up because the threat of another armed rebellion in Russia has not been fully neutralized.

A week and a half after Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin led a mutiny against Russia's military establishment, Russian newspaper Vedomosti reported that law enforcement authorities discussed reassigning "Grom" units—special forces set up to fight drug crimes under the government's Main Directorate for Drugs Control—to Russia's National Guard.

Known as Rosgvardia, the National Guard is separate to Russia's armed forces and reports directly to the Russian president. Its tasks include maintaining public order and protecting state facilities. Putin held talks about deploying Grom units to Rosgvardia with law enforcement officials on June 26, two days after the rebellion.

However, Alexander Khinshtein, former adviser to Rosgvardia head Viktor Zolotov, warned it would be "dangerous" to assign Grom units to Rosgvardia, Vedomosti reported, as sources cited poorer equipment, training and leadership.

Reports of restructuring Russia's internal security forces suggest that the Kremlin is trying to set up an effective force that can counter any future rebellion, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) think tank said.

This shows that the Kremlin was unhappy with the security forces' actions during the rebellion which failed to contest Wagner's march on Moscow. This suggests "that the Kremlin has not ruled out the risk of future such rebellions," the ISW said on Tuesday.

Prigozhin called off his mutiny following a deal that was reportedly brokered by Belarusian leader, Alexander Lukashenko, which included the Wagner founder being exiled to Belarus where some of his troops are expected to follow.

However questions remain over what happened during the mutiny, amid speculation about Putin's whereabouts and whether Prigozhin had high-level backing to launch a bold march on the Russian capital.

A plane used by Putin reportedly left Moscow and its transponder was turned off as it began to descend in the Tver region. This may indicate the aircraft was heading to the Borisovsky Khotilovo airbase—the nearest airfield to Putin's Valdai residence.

However, exiled Russian opposition politician Ilya Ponomarev, whose group Congress of People's Deputies seeks the collapse of the Putin regime, told Newsweek he believed that Putin was "aware of Prigozhin's plans and was using them for his benefit."

"I cannot say whether they planned this together, but I think that Putin didn't put too much effort to stop him at the very beginning," he said. "The rationale was that Putin needed at least some victory."

"Secondly, he needed a stress test for the Russian elites and now he's starting a purge in the Russian military" as well as those in government structures. "Certain people were scared and it was very visible," he said, adding that Putin had traded "tactical advantages for strategic costs," with the rebellion.

"Tactically, I do think that he is strengthened because he is seen as the person who scored victory in the eyes of ordinary Russians."