Russia Running Out of Troops in Battle for Bakhmut, Battalions Split Up—ISW

Russia is running out of troops in the intensifying battle for Bakhmut in Ukraine's eastern Donbas region, while battalions are being split up, according to an assessment by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

The U.S. think tank said on Tuesday that Russian forces in Bakhmut may be nearing "culmination"—the point at which an attacking military force can no longer continue its advance—as Russian forces in the southern Kherson region did in August.

Russian losses, the ISW said, are likely forcing the Russian military in the Bakhmut area to use squad-sized assault groups.

The think tank noted that on Tuesday, Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty reported that Russian forces in the Bakhmut area are no longer operating as company and battalion tactical groups, but are instead operating in smaller groups of 10 to 15 service members, in squad-size organizations.

This move echoes a similar decision by Russia's military in August in the Kherson region, the ISW said, when Russian forces similarly degenerated from company and battalion tactical groups to individual squad-sized groups.

"The Russian military's rate of advance in the Bakhmut area has recently slowed amidst growing personnel and munitions constraints that will likely prevent it from maintaining a high pace of offensive operations in the area in the near term," the ISW said.

According to the think tank's assessment, the Russian military's reported use of squad-sized groups is likely a result of prolonged attritional warfare and indicates the degradation of larger formations above the platoon level.

"Russian rate of advances in the Bakhmut area will likely decrease if Russian forces continue advancing at all unless significant new reinforcements and supplies of artillery rounds arrive soon," it concluded.

Source: Institute for the Study of War and AEI's Critical Threats Project.

Serhiy Haidai, governor of the Russian-occupied Luhansk region, said on his Telegram channel on Monday that thousands of Russian troops have died in the battle for Bakhmut.

Bakhmut is one of the most intense spots of fighting in the war, and Russian forces in the region are being led by members of a notorious mercenary unit, the Wagner Group, founded by Yevgeny Prigozhin, an ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Haidai said on Monday that the battle for Bakhmut is "no longer even a strategic military plan, although there is such a thing, but a rather symbolic matter—which the Kremlin regime loves very much." He alleged that Chechen forces, led by Ramzan Kadyrov, and Prigozhin's Wagner Group, want to prove themselves to Putin.

While the town of Bakhmut doesn't hold a lot of strategic value, its location does. Seizing the region would enable Putin's troops to launch artillery strikes on key places, such as the cities of Kramatorsk and Slovyansk in the Donetsk region.

Newsweek reached out to Russia's Foreign Ministry for comment.

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