Russia Hits Deadlock in Avdiivka

Russia has reportedly hit a deadlock in Avdiivka, days after launching a large-scale assault on the eastern town in Ukraine's Donetsk region.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) think tank cited a Kremlin-affiliated milblogger on Sunday as discussing difficulties that may be contributing to a "positional deadlock" for Russian offensive operations in the Avdiivka direction as of October 22. Newsweek has contacted Russia's Defense Ministry for comment via email.

Moscow's forces, beginning on October 10, mounted their biggest offensive in months in an attempt to capture Avdiivka. They sent in thousands of troops, tanks and armored vehicles in a battle for the town, which is seen as the gateway to recapturing the Russian-occupied city of Donetsk and the rest of the Donbas region.

Avdiivka has been the target of Russian aggression since 2014, when Russian President Vladimir Putin illegally annexed the southern Crimean peninsula from Ukraine. Pro-Russian separatists in the eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk started clashing with Kyiv's forces.

Data from Dutch open-source intelligence defense analysis website Oryx says that one in 10 Russian equipment losses since Kyiv launched a counteroffensive in the summer occurred in the past 10 days, coinciding with intensifying clashes in Avdiivka.

Videos published by Ukrainian officials last week showed drones dropping ammunition onto Russian tanks and vehicles, causing large explosions. The footage has not been verified as yet by Newsweek.

The ISW said Russian forces are funneling additional forces to the Avdiivka front, despite ongoing challenges with frontal mechanized assaults and the failure of a renewed push on October 19 and 20.

"Russian forces are likely once again pausing following a failed major push which suffered heavy losses," the U.S.-based think tank said.

The Kremlin-affiliated milblogger who said Russia may be hitting a deadlock in Avdiivka, added that it is difficult to conduct maneuver warfare on a static front line with a large number of personnel and fortified areas on both sides, per the ISW.

The milblogger said that Ukrainian drones and other precision weapons have made armored vehicles increasingly vulnerable and rendered ground attacks ever more difficult.

"The milblogger also noted that Russian forces are facing difficulties in overcoming Ukrainian minefields near Avdiivka and are unable to completely destroy Ukrainian logistics, allowing the Ukrainian command to quickly transfer personnel to critical areas," the ISW added.

When reporters questioned Putin about Avdiivka last week, the Russian leader said that his troops were conducting "active defense" along the front line in Ukraine.

The ISW said at the time that Putin may be trying to temper expectations of significant Russian advances around Avdiivka.

"Russian forces are unlikely to make significant breakthroughs or cut off Ukrainian forces in the settlement in the near term, and potential advances at scale would likely require a significant and protracted commitment of personnel and material," the ISW added.

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