Russia Claims Victory in Battle for Soledar: Now What?

The bloody fight for the Donetsk town of Soledar has taken a heavy toll on Russian and Ukrainian forces amid speculation over what it might signify for the next stage of the war.

Russia has claimed that it controls the salt-mining town nine miles north of the city of Bakhmut, which has been a focus for troops from the Wagner Group of mercenaries fighting for Moscow and financed by the businessman Yevgeny Prigozhin.

However, British defense officials said that as of Sunday, Ukrainian forces have "almost certainly maintained positions" in the town, despite the Wagner assaults.

Former British military intelligence officer Philip Ingram told Newsweek that reported Russian gains in Soledar were "tactically important" as Wagner continued to try to surround and capture Bakhmut.

"But the battle for Bakhmut has been going on for six months and progress for the Russians has been painfully slow and at huge cost," he said.

"From a Ukrainian perspective, the longer they can keep the Russians tied up focusing more and more resources on Bakhmut, the more it gives Ukrainian formations time to prepare, get additional equipment and plan for their next counteroffensive.

"The Ukrainians have fixed Russian attention onto Bakhmut and fixing a formation is a military operation," he added.

Soledar and Bakhmut, as well as Siversk 16 miles north, and Kreminna a further 25 miles north, comprise of a single segment of the frontline and are treated as a unit by both Kyiv and Moscow, according to Meduza.

The independent Russian language news outlet said that the loss of Soledar would threaten Ukrainian positions around Bakhmut, as well as the supply lines west of the urban area.

In the same way, it said a Ukrainian breakthrough by Kreminna, on the northern flank of the Russian grouping, would endanger the Russian offensive on Bakhmut.

In its daily update on Monday, the U.K. Ministry of Defense said that intense fighting continued in both the Kreminna and Bakhmut sectors of the Donbas front. There have been attacks and counterattacks in wooded country around Kreminna, but Ukrainian armed forces "continue to gradually advance their front line east on the edge of Kremina town," the update added.

Meanwhile, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) outlined on Sunday its long-term predictions for the next steps in the war in the coming months. It listed two possible courses of action.

The first is for Moscow to seek to conduct a major offensive in the Luhansk oblast. The second would be a Russian defensive operation to defeat and exploit a Ukrainian counteroffensive.

This follows the Kremlin's redeployment of units from Kherson to Luhansk and the Russian oblasts of Belgorod and Kursk after its withdrawal from Kherson.

Moscow's intentions for a counteroffensive have been predicted by Kyiv and Russian military bloggers because "the full capture" of that and the Donetsk region "remain the Kremlin's official war goals and are among Russia's most achievable," the ISW said.

What Moscow does next will depend on what President Vladimir Putin does with the troops called up during a partial mobilization drive.

Amid accusations that the new reservists are ill equipped and ill trained, analysts have cast doubt on whether such troops would be used for offensive operations, or whether they are more likely to hold the line and only push forward incrementally.

"I think even if you could mobilize 300,000 plus people, you're going to utilize them to maintain the terrain that you have out of Crimea and the Donbas and not have them go down the offensive plan again to retake ground you already lost," Dale Buckner, CEO of international security firm Global Guardian, told Newsweek last week.