Russia Setting Conditions for 'New Most Dangerous Course of Action'—ISW

A build-up of Russian forces in Belarus is reportedly part of a plan by Moscow to set the conditions for a renewed invasion of northern Ukraine possibly aimed at Kyiv.

The assessment by Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a U.S.-based think tank, on Friday comes as the Belarusian opposition in exile told Newsweek that attempts to involve Belarus more directly in Putin's invasion will be met with resistance and sabotage.

Belarus has been used as a staging post for Russia's invasion of Ukraine although Minsk has avoided direct participation in the war.

However, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, who relies on Vladimir Putin to stay in power following a 2020 election widely seen as fraudulent, has been testing the combat readiness of his country's troops.

The two leaders met in Minsk on December 19, raising concerns in the West that Putin would pressure Lukashenko to get more directly involved in the war, especially as Russian soldiers and military equipment have been grouping near the Belarusian border with Ukraine.

The ISW said that Moscow had been looking at a "new most dangerous course of action" (MCDOA) since October and that it was more likely that a Russian build-up in Belarus signaled plans for a "renewed offensive" rather than a move to train troops.

While there is no evidence that Moscow was preparing a strike force in Belarus and that another move into Ukraine from the neighbor of both countries was "unlikely this winter," the U.S. think tank said on Friday that such a move by Vladimir Putin was "a possibility that must be taken seriously."

Putin is to meet with Lukashenko in St. Petersburg on December 26 and 27 of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), a Moscow-led group of post-Soviet countries. These talks are expected to "advance the Russian information operation around the MDCOA even if it does not directly support preparations for it," the ISW said.

This operation was "designed to establish the plausibility" of the MCDOA and follows the Russian Defense Ministry's announcement that it has a field hospital in Belarus, which could signal preparations for combat.

Franak Viačorka, chief political adviser to Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya who is based in Poland, told Newsweek that the chance of direct participation of Belarus in Putin's invasion "remains very low."

He said Lukashenko "will continue to provide airfields, hospitals, territory, intel and political support for Russia—but he will be doing everything possible to avoid the direct involvement of Belarusian troops." There were not enough Russian troops or equipment to suggest an imminent attack on Ukraine from Belarus "but they will be able to deploy in a few months."

"We as democratic forces are trying to engage people in resistance," Viačorka said, as he described how there had been an increase of Belarusian partisan attacks on Russian targets such as railway lines on Belarusian territory that allowed the delivery of Moscow's military supplies.

"I hope that Russia in the end will refuse the idea of attacking from Belarusian territory because of resistance," he added.

Newsweek has contacted the Russian Defense Ministry for comment.

Correction 12/24/22, 11:28 a.m. ET: This article was updated to show that Franak Viačorka is based in Poland, not Lithuania.