Russia's Black Sea Fleet Has Never Been More Vulnerable

Two strikes on Moscow's ships in the Black Sea in consecutive days were followed by a warning from Kyiv that Russian ports in the region were at "war risk" signaling how Ukraine was taking its fight against occupation to the water.

Ukraine celebrated without directly acknowledging last week's sea drone attack on the Olenegorsky Gornyak, near Novorossiysk port in Russia's southern Krasnodar region, a major navy base and oil-exporting port east of Russian-occupied Crimea.

Martin Devenish, head of corporate intelligence at security consultancy S-RM, told Newsweek the attack showed "the evolving nature of the conflict, particularly the shifting paradigm of Ukraine's strategy in striking targets beyond the immediate frontlines."

No sooner had the video footage of the listing vessel being towed to port gone viral, than even more dramatic footage emerged of a sea drone skimming the water's surface in the Kerch Strait as headed towards another ship central to Russia's military, the tanker SIG.

The video turned to static following the collision which blew a hole by the waterline next to the engine room, stopped traffic on the bridge linking Crimea to Russia and highlighted an emerging vulnerability for Russia's fleet off the shores of the country it has invaded.

"Both of the attacks are very significant in different ways," said Yörük Işık, from the Bosphorus Observer maritime consultancy. He told Newsweek that the strike on Olenegorsky Gornyak "shows that the Russian Navy has no place to hide in the Black Sea."

"Most of the important ships and submarines of the Black Sea fleet retreated to the safe harbor of Novorossiysk and even there, Ukraine has the capacity to operate," he said. "It shows a very important military operational capacity."

The 3,600-tonne, 360-feet long vessel which launches amphibious forces, is frequently used by Russia's Northern Fleet and has been used by the Black Sea Fleet since the start of the war in Ukraine.

A Ukrainian intelligence source said Kyiv's Security Service and navy were behind the strike on the largest Russian naval vessel seriously damaged or destroyed since the sinking of the cruiser Moskva on April 13, 2022.

There has been a stepping up of hostilities in the Black Sea since Russian President Vladimir Putin announced Russia would withdraw from a grain deal that guaranteed the safe passage of Ukrainian food through ports in the region.

Kyiv has condemned Moscow for strikes on grain facilities in the Odesa oblast. At the start of August, Russia's Defense Ministry said it had thwarted a Ukrainian naval drone attack on the Sergei Kotov and Vasily Bykov patrol boats sailing around 210 miles southwest of the Black Sea Fleet's headquarters in Sevastopol.

As previously reported by Newsweek, Ukraine's Minister of Digital Transformation Mykhailo Fedorov said his country's drones will play a key role in Kyiv's fight to liberate the region. "A naval drone is a unique and classified Ukrainian development," he said, and as such "will have a role in the liberation of the temporarily occupied Black Sea coastal area."

Meanwhile, Işık said hitting Russia's oil tanker the SIG would deliver a different kind of blow to Russia's military. It was transporting jet kerosene fuel to the Russian air force in Syria. Its company including from Crimea.

"It is like the perfect storm— this sanctioned vessel is carrying through fuel products from an illegal seized refinery from an area unlawfully occupied by Russia to Syria—so it's a really intelligently chosen target," he said. "It was acting like a merchant vessel but in practice, it was a Russian Navy auxiliary vessel."

As well as depriving Crimea's occupational authorities of income, "it's partially cripples the Russian Armed forces operation in Syria because there will be less fuel to be carried to the Syrian theatre," Işık said.