Ukraine Makes 'Tactically Significant' Advances Amid Three Sector Push—ISW

Ukrainian forces are making advances in their counteroffensive even if territorial gains are limited, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has said.

Ukraine launched its counteroffensive around June 4 with the aim of retaking Russian-occupied territory but there are concerns over slow progress, due in part to the heavy fortifications that Russian forces have built up along the front line.

But in its Friday update, the U.S. think tank struck a more optimistic note, saying Ukrainian forces had made "tactically significant advances" in the west of the Zaporizhzhia oblast as counteroffensive operations continued on at least three sectors of the front.

It cites geolocated footage which showed how Kyiv's troops had reached the outskirts of the town of Robotyne, although "the permanence and extent of these positions are currently unclear."

While Russian milbloggers reported heavy fighting around Robotyne for weeks, involving Russia's 7th Guards Airborne (VDV) Division and Chechen fighters, the think tank said Kyiv's ability to advance to the town's outskirts "remains significant even if Ukrainian gains are limited at this time."

The ISW said that Ukraine's counteroffensive seems to be forcing Russian forces to laterally redeploy troops defending in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast, "indicating that the Ukrainian effort there may be significantly degrading Russian defenses."

Russia's practice of conducting lateral redeployments to key sectors of the front "will likely further weaken" its defensive lines as both Russian and Ukrainian operations fix Russian units to certain sectors, the ISW said.

The think tank also assessed that further degradation of defending Russian forces created the possibility for any Ukrainian breakthrough "to be potentially decisive." It added that Russian forces seem to be intensifying offensive operations northeast of Kupiansk where authorities this week evacuated residents.

Geolocated footage on Friday also showed Ukrainian forces had advanced into the settlement of Urozhaine along the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia Oblast border area.

The Ukrainian General Staff reported on Friday that Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in the Bakhmut, Berdyansk (Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia Oblast border area), and Melitopol (western Zaporizhzhia Oblast) directions.

In a substack post on Friday, defense analyst Konrad Muzyka, director of Rochan Consulting, said that over the last week, there has been the continuation of a pattern in which both Russia and Ukraine mount relatively small attacks which deliver only "minimal territorial gains."

However, he said there had been an increased tempo of Russian attacks in the Luhansk and Kharkiv Oblasts and that Moscow has likely shifted the focus of its operations from the southern direction to the northern parts of the frontline.

Ukrainian authorities' decision to evacuate civilians from near the frontline areas in these directions such as in Kupiansk, "could indeed indicate that Kyiv expects a further increase in Russian operations," Muzyka wrote.

Newsweek has contacted the Russian Defense Ministry for comment.