Ukraine Maps Show Contrasting Counteroffensives Against Russian Forces

Volodymyr Zelensky's view that his forces' counteroffensive was "slower than desired" highlights how Kyiv's latest attempt to retake occupied territory differs from last year's lightning push.

The Ukrainian president's comment about the counteroffensive may have also reflected sentiment in the West hoping military support for Kyiv would result in dramatic gains, similar to those achieved last year in Kharkiv oblast.

Brigadier General Oleksii Hromov—the deputy chief of the Main Operational Directorate of the Ukrainian armed forces—said on Thursday that since June 6, Kyiv's forces have liberated nine settlements and over 60 square miles of territory.

But this contrasts with the gains of the counteroffensive that took place over a shorter time frame last year, between September 6 and October 2, during which Ukraine retook over 500 settlements and over 4,600 square miles of territory.

On July 4, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) noted that the current Ukrainian counter-offensive was slower than the one that liberated much of Kharkiv Oblast.

But the ISW said it was still more successful than the failed Russian winter offensive, and "most like the slower but ultimately successful Kherson counteroffensive in its pace and initial progress."

Maps produced by the DC think tank in its daily updates of the war over the last nine months gives a visual comparison of the two counteroffensives nine months apart:

ISW graphics released on September 5 and September 10 give a dramatic depiction of Ukraine's main push in the east. On September 10, they showed Ukrainian gains of over 1,150 square miles in just five days.

This included the capture that day of the west part of Kyipansk on the right bank of the Oskil River, the liberation of Velyky Burlyk and forces reaching the north of Izium and Oksil Village.

The think tank noted that these gains included "more territory than Russian forces have captured in all their operations" since April 2022.

"Last fall's rapid-fire advance in Kharkiv was predicated on a quick breakthrough across weakly defended lines in advance of a slowdown in fighting over the winter," said Joshua Tucker, senior geopolitical risk advisor at Kroll.

October 2, 2022

Three weeks later, the picture had changed, with ISW's map showing territory that Ukraine had reclaimed and Russian troops withdrawing from the city of Lyman.

The ISW noted how Kremlin-sponsored media and Russian milbloggers were "grieving the loss of Lyman" in the Donetsk oblast and criticizing the failures of partial mobilization and supply of Russian forces in northern Donbas.

Ukraine's counteroffensive last year that captured large pockets of Kharkiv oblast was helped by the speed of its advances, but the much-anticipated new push that started in June offered no such element of surprise for the Kremlin.

"The main difference between the ongoing Ukrainian counter-offensive and Ukraine's successful operations in Kharkov and Kherson is that the Russians were ready this time, unlike the Kharkov area campaign, where they left insufficient troops defending a large chunk of territory," Vuk Vuksanovic, associate at the London School of Economics thinktank LSE IDEAS, told Newsweek.

Maps from June 6, when the latest counteroffensive started, and July 4 show much smaller gains. Vuksanovic said that the Russian forces had expected the main thrust of the Ukrainian advance would be through the Zaporozhzhia area to take over the city of Melitipol and cut Russian forces in Crimea and the Donbas region in two.

"As a result, the Russians spent more than six months building a complex and elaborate set of defensive belts along the 1000km [660 mile] frontline," he said.

"The entire Western optimism about the Ukrainian counter-offensive was based on the notion that NATO provided training and equipment to the Ukrainians, not considering that the offense against a well-fortified enemy is the most difficult form of warfare."

On top of that, he said that Ukraine does not have the airpower superiority needed for this type of operation, while the Russians effectively use weapon systems to blunt Ukraine's offensive, such as Alligator helicopters and Lancet drones.

However, there is a call for patience for Kyiv's advance on Russia, which will "take time," Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said last month.

Meanwhile, British defense officials said Saturday that Ukrainian forces had made steady gains north and south of Bakhmut, in Donetsk oblast, while Russian troops were beset by poor morale, disparate units and a limited ability to find and strike Ukrainian artillery.

"It is important to remember that it is still early in the counteroffensive, and Ukraine is using the first weeks of fighting to probe Russian defenses," said Tucker, who added that the current counteroffensive has a longer time frame than last year's.

"Ukraine has not yet fully committed all of its new Western trained troops to the fight yet," he told Newsweek. "So we do want to be cautious about assessing the overall success of the counter-offensive too early."