Russia's Hopes of Thwarting Ukraine's Advance Crushed

The Moscow-aligned information space is reporting Kremlin troop setbacks amid Russian sources suggesting Ukraine has begun its counter-offensive.

Kyiv has not commented on Russian claims that its long-awaited push to retake captured territory has commenced, but milbloggers have reported on Telegram how Ukrainian troops have used tanks and other armored vehicles in the Zaporizhzhia oblast.

On Thursday, milblogger War Gonzo said that a battle had been ongoing during the night in Orekhov-Tokmak, writing that the Ukrainian side had not made significant progress.

However, the post described how on the Donetsk front where Russian troops had conducted assault operations in Maryinka "the Ukrainian garrison held its positions" and managed to advance in the Vodiane area.

Meanwhile, Russian troops attempted a counterattack near Kleshcheevka, southwest of Bakhmut, which was not successful. The Ukrainian army, backed by artillery, "managed to occupy several new positions on the southwestern approaches to the city."

Russian state media war correspondent Alexander Sladkov wrote on Telegram Thursday that, in the Zaporizhzhia direction, "the enemy is moving forward in waves trying to break through our first line of defense."

He said that Russian forces had destroyed Ukrainian personnel and equipment although regarding Bakhmut, "the enemy was also advancing."

Meanwhile the Twitter account Tendar, which gives updates about the war from a pro-Kyiv perspective, said that Russian troops on many parts of the frontline "are getting pounded" by Ukrainian forces using rocket artillery and western-supplied weapons such as the British-supplied Storm Shadow missiles.

"The long-range strikes such as in Tokmak and Melitopol in the last hours are even more interesting," said the post, which also described how Russian claims Moscow was repelling attacks were untrue and that they were "surviving barrage after another."

It is not yet known what the impact will be of the destruction of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant on the Dnieper River for the expected push by Ukraine's forces. Kyiv has blamed Moscow for attacking the dam, linking it to an attempt to thwart Ukraine's advances.

However, on Thursday, Ukraine's Armed Forces said that Russia was also paying the price for the devastation caused by the dam's destruction with its forces suffering losses of personnel and military equipment.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said Wednesday that the destruction of the dam was "significantly changing the geography and topography of the Kherson frontline sector," and is "affecting Russian military positions" on the river's eastern bank.

Retired Lieutenant General Ben Hodges, the former commanding general of United States Army Europe, told Newsweek he thought the Russians had blown up the dam, having "panicked because they thought the offensive had started."

"The Russians will probably not gain as much military benefit as they might hope," he said, referring to assessments that floodwaters will subside within the seven days and the ground will start to dry rapidly in the summer heat. "The effect hoped for by the Russians—a delay and disruption of that of Ukraine's maneuver options in southeastern Ukraine—is likely to be short-lived."

Keir Giles, senior consulting fellow at Chatham House's Russia and Eurasia program, told Newsweek on Wednesday that while the dam's destruction "negatively impacts Ukraine as a country—whether it impacts the counter-offensive depends on what exactly Ukraine was planning to do, which at this point we don't know."

In emailed comments to Newsweek, Peter Dickinson, editor of the Atlantic Council think tank's Ukraine Alert, said Kyiv's forces were unlikely to launch the offensive by going "over the top" of Russian lines.

He said they were more likely to test Russian defenses along the front to stretch Moscow's forces "identify weak points" and that at least in the initial stages, Ukraine's push would be "a rolling series of local probes and thrusts."

Newsweek has contacted the Ukrainian and Russian defense ministries for comment.

Update 06/08/23, 10:30 a.m. ET: This article has been updated with comment from Ben Hodges.