Belarus Unlikely To Provide Russia a Force Capable of New Assault: U.K.

Belarus' announcement of an inspection of its troops' combat readiness does not signal that Minsk will form a force capable of launching an assault into Ukraine, British defense officials have said.

The assessment by the U.K. Ministry of Defense (MOD) follows the announcement on Tuesday by the Belarusian defense ministry that its soldiers would conduct exercises in the north-west of the country.

The drills would not directly approach the Belarusian border with Ukraine but would involve moving to locations to test equipment, organize security and defense and build bridges across the Neman and Berezina rivers.

The Neman River runs through Lithuania into the Baltic Sea, while the Berezina joins the Dnieper River around 40 miles north of the Ukrainian border.

However, the U.K. MOD said on Thursday that the Belarusian troops and Russian units "are currently unlikely to constitute a force capable of conducting a successful new assault into northern Ukraine."

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has relied on his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin to stay in power, following elections in 2020 viewed internationally as fraudulent that were followed by protests and a brutal crackdown.

While Lukashenko has previously spoken of a joint-force comprising Russian and Belarusian soldiers, Belarus has not played a direct role in Putin's invasion of Ukraine.

However, Russian weapons and aircraft are stationed on Belarusian territory which did provide the staging post for Russia's assault towards Kyiv soon after Putin launched his attack on February 24.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said on December 11 that Belarus is "extraordinarily unlikely to invade Ukraine in the foreseeable future."

It added that such an intervention could only draw Ukrainian ground forces away from other areas temporarily given MInsk's "extremely limited effective combat power."

Rather, the rumors that Belarusian ground forces might join Russia are part of an information operation pushed by Russian officials that Lukashenko "sometimes plays along with," the ISW said. The aim is to divert Ukrainian forces to the Belarusian border.

As Newsweek has previously reported, the Belarusian opposition has said it is unlikely that Lukashenko would want to commit troops to Putin's war effort, in part because of the unpopularity of the war in Ukraine, but also because it could leave the autocrat vulnerable in Minsk.

However, British defense officials have previously said that Russia was moving MiG-31K jets and AS-24 Killjoy air-launched ballistic missiles to Machulishchy airfield in the Minsk region, raising the prospect of more attacks from Belarusian territory.

Newsweek has contacted the Belarusian and Russian defense ministries for comment.