Ukraine 'Adapting' to Massive Combined Missile-Drone Attacks by Russia: ISW

Ukraine is adapting to Moscow's increased drone and missile attacks but needs help to boost air defenses that Russian forces are getting used to, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has said.

Over the New Year period, Moscow conducted another massive series of strikes against Ukraine, whose officials said included 90 Shahed drones fired overnight on Sunday.

Ukraine says its air defenses shot down 87 of the drones, with officials saying that Russian forces also launched four S-300 and three Kinzhal Kh-31 missiles, as well as a Kinzhal Kh-59 missile, from the occupied Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions on New Year's Day.

The Ukrainian General Staff said Russian forces launched 10 Shahed drones and one Kh-59 missile on Monday, nine of which were shot down by Ukrainian forces. The next day, Russia carried out another large-scale attack launching nearly 100 missiles and 35 drones, killing at least five people and injuring 130.

The barrage follows President Vladimir Putin's pledge to step up attacks on Ukraine following strikes on the Russian border city of Belgorod, which Moscow has blamed on Kyiv and left two dozen dead and more than 100 people injured.

In its update on Tuesday, the ISW said that the Russian attacks had "used a strike package similar to that used on December 29, and to which Ukrainian forces appear to be adapting."

It noted how Ukrainian forces had downed more drones and missiles on Monday and Tuesday than on December 29 and that this suggested Ukrainian forces "may have adapted to the type of strike package Russian forces employed" that day.

This likely followed months of experimentation and testing of Ukrainian air defenses using different weapons systems, strike routes, and air defense mitigation tactics, the think tank said.

Russian strikes on Ukraine formed "an ongoing tactical and technological offense-defense race wherein both sides are constantly experimenting and adapting to the other," said the ISW.

This meant that Western aid to Ukraine "remains crucial as Russian forces will likely continue to experiment and innovate new ways to penetrate Ukrainian air defenses."

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba wrote on X on Tuesday that Ukraine's allies must speed up deliveries of air defense systems and ammunition and provide combat drones and long-range missiles.

Further U.S. aid to Ukraine has been held up in Congress, where some Republican lawmakers are seeking to end continued support for Kyiv.

The ISW has said that should Western aid to Kyiv end it would likely set conditions for an expanded Russian air campaign in Ukraine and significant Russian advances to the western Ukrainian border with NATO member states.

"Western provision of air defense systems and missiles to Ukraine remains crucial for Ukraine as Russian forces will likely attempt to adapt to Ukrainian air defense capabilities," the ISW said

Newsweek has contacted the Russian defense ministry for comment.