Kremlin Manual Prepares Russian Media for Ukraine Counteroffensive

Russian media outlets have received instructions from the Kremlin on how to frame Kyiv's counteroffensive, according to a report.

Even if there is uncertainty over how Ukraine will conduct its widely expected operation, it seems that the Kremlin is leaving nothing to chance on how state-run media outlets cover what could be further losses for Russian forces, independent Russian-language news outlet Meduza reported.

The Latvia-based publication said it had obtained guidelines, drawn up for Russian media by President Vladimir Putin's administration, on how to spin any Russian setbacks—as well as promote Moscow's successes.

Media outlets are instructed to manage the Russian public's expectations by not playing down the prospect that Ukraine might achieve gains and not claiming that Kyiv is "unprepared" for the counteroffensive.

Putin administration sources told Meduza that if Ukraine were to make gains, the Kremlin can explain it with a narrative that Russia was fighting against the full force of NATO, and as such, the Russian army was able to hold its own. On the other hand, if Ukraine's offensive is a failure, the Kremlin will be able to say that the Russian army had repelled a powerful, Western-assisted attack.

The document also tells propagandists not to focus on how much money Moscow is spending on rebuilding infrastructure in the occupied and annexed Ukrainian territories.

Meduza reported that this totals around $12.5 billion— more than one third of the country's budget deficit for the first quarter of 2023.

Outlets are also discouraged from reporting on rehearsals for May 9 Victory Day parades, which some regions have canceled due to security concerns. Moscow and other cities will forego the Immortal Regiment processions marking the Soviet defeat of Nazism. Meduza's Kremlin sources did not comment on the reason for not reporting about the lead-up to these events.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said that the alleged document suggested the Kremlin is preparing for Ukrainian successes and "is planning to mitigate demoralization in the Russian information space."

"This is an important Russian adaptation from previous Ukrainian counteroffensives in Kherson and Kharkiv," the think tank said, as the Kremlin seeks to avoid the "dramatic shocks and demoralization" caused by those setbacks. Newsweek has emailed the Kremlin for comment.

Meanwhile, Chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley told Foreign Affairs that Ukrainian forces' ability to attack, conduct offensive operations and defend was "significantly enhanced from what they were just a year ago for conventional operations."